Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-194
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-194
14 Feb 2023
 | 14 Feb 2023
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).

Exploiting the signal to noise ratio in multi-system predictions of summertime precipitation and maximum temperatures in Europe

Juan Camilo Acosta Navarro and Andrea Toreti

Abstract. Droughts and heatwaves are among the most impactful climate extremes. Their co-occurrence can have devastating consequences on natural and human systems. Early information on seasonal timescales on their possible occurrence is beneficial for many stakeholders. Seasonal climate forecast has gradually become more used; but limited skill in certain regions and seasons still hinders a broader use. Here we show that a simple forecast metric from a multi-system ensemble, the signal to noise ratio, can help overcome some limitations in the boreal summer. Forecasts of maximum daily near surface air temperature and precipitation in boreal summers with high signal to noise ratio tend to coincide with observed larger deviations from the mean than years with small signal to noise ratio. The same metric also helps identify processes relevant to seasonal climate predictability. Here we show that a positive phase of a North Atlantic Sea surface dipole during boreal spring may favor the occurrence of dry and hot summers in Europe.

Juan Camilo Acosta Navarro and Andrea Toreti

Status: open (until 19 Apr 2023)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Juan Camilo Acosta Navarro and Andrea Toreti

Juan Camilo Acosta Navarro and Andrea Toreti

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Short summary
Droughts and heatwaves have become some of the clearest manifestations of a changing climate. Near-term adaptation strategies can benefit from seasonal predictions, but these predictions still have limitations. We found that an intrinsic property of multi-system forecasts can serve to better anticipate extreme maximum temperature and precipitation events during boreal summer. The same property can also be used to understand climate process that favor such events in Europe.