Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1931
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1931
18 Sep 2023
 | 18 Sep 2023

Probabilistic assessment of postfire debris-flow inundation in response to forecast rainfall

Alexander B. Prescott, Luke A. McGuire, Kwang-Sung Jun, Katherine R. Barnhart, and Nina S. Oakley

Abstract. Communities downstream from burned steeplands face increases in debris-flow hazards due to fire effects on soil and vegetation. Rapid postfire hazard assessments have traditionally focused on quantifying spatial variations in debris-flow likelihood and volume in response to design rainstorms. However, a methodology that provides estimates of debris-flow inundation downstream from burned areas based on forecast rainfall would provide decision-makers with information that directly addresses the potential for downstream impacts. We introduce a framework that integrates a 24-hour lead-time ensemble precipitation forecast with debris-flow likelihood, volume, and runout models to produce probabilistic maps of debris-flow inundation. We applied this framework to simulate debris-flow inundation associated with the 9 January 2018 debris-flow event in Montecito, California, USA. Sensitivity analyses indicate that reducing uncertainty in postfire debris-flow volume prediction will have the largest impact on reducing inundation outcome uncertainty. The study results are an initial step toward an operational hazard assessment product that includes debris-flow inundation.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

15 Jul 2024
Probabilistic assessment of postfire debris-flow inundation in response to forecast rainfall
Alexander B. Prescott, Luke A. McGuire, Kwang-Sung Jun, Katherine R. Barnhart, and Nina S. Oakley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2359–2374, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024, 2024
Short summary
Alexander B. Prescott, Luke A. McGuire, Kwang-Sung Jun, Katherine R. Barnhart, and Nina S. Oakley

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1931', Anonymous Referee #1, 08 Oct 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Alexander Prescott, 21 Dec 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1931', Paul Santi, 14 Oct 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Alexander Prescott, 21 Dec 2023

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1931', Anonymous Referee #1, 08 Oct 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Alexander Prescott, 21 Dec 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1931', Paul Santi, 14 Oct 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Alexander Prescott, 21 Dec 2023

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (22 Dec 2023) by Paolo Tarolli
AR by Alexander Prescott on behalf of the Authors (30 Jan 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (08 Feb 2024) by Paolo Tarolli
RR by Paul Santi (12 Feb 2024)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (10 Mar 2024)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (18 Apr 2024) by Paolo Tarolli
AR by Alexander Prescott on behalf of the Authors (05 May 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (22 May 2024) by Paolo Tarolli
AR by Alexander Prescott on behalf of the Authors (25 May 2024)  Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

15 Jul 2024
Probabilistic assessment of postfire debris-flow inundation in response to forecast rainfall
Alexander B. Prescott, Luke A. McGuire, Kwang-Sung Jun, Katherine R. Barnhart, and Nina S. Oakley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2359–2374, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024, 2024
Short summary
Alexander B. Prescott, Luke A. McGuire, Kwang-Sung Jun, Katherine R. Barnhart, and Nina S. Oakley

Model code and software

Online repository for code and data used in: Probabilistic assessment of postfire debris-flow inundation in response to forecast rainfall Alexander B. Prescott, Luke A. McGuire, Kwang-Sung Jun, Katherine R. Barnhart, and Nina S. Oakley https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7838914

Alexander B. Prescott, Luke A. McGuire, Kwang-Sung Jun, Katherine R. Barnhart, and Nina S. Oakley

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Short summary
Fire can dramatically increase the risk of debris flows to downstream communities with little warning, but hazard assessments have not traditionally included estimates of inundation. We unify models developed by the scientific community to create probabilistic estimates of inundation area in response to rainfall at forecast lead times (≥ 24 hours) needed for decision-making. This work takes an initial step towards an operational postfire debris-flow inundation hazard assessment product.