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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1574
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1574
06 Oct 2023
 | 06 Oct 2023

Current and Future Rainfall-Driven Flood Risk From Hurricanes in Puerto Rico Under 1.5 °C and 2 °C Climate Change

Leanne Archer, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, Emily Vosper, Dereka Carroll, Jeison Sosa, and Daniel Mitchell

Abstract. Flooding associated with Hurricane Maria in 2017 had devastating consequences for lives and livelihoods in Puerto Rico. Yet, an understanding of current and future flood risk in small islands like Puerto Rico is limited. Thus, efforts to build resilience to flooding associated with hurricanes remain constrained. Here, we take an event set of hurricane rainfall estimates from a synthetic hurricane rainfall simulator as the input to an event-based rainfall-driven flood inundation model using hydrodynamic code LISFLOOD-FP. Validation of our model against High Water Mark data for Hurricane Maria demonstrates the suitability of this model for estimating flood hazard in Puerto Rico. We produce event-based flood hazard and population exposure estimates for the present day, and the future under the 1.5 °C and 2 °C Paris Agreement goals. Population exposure to flooding from hurricane rainfall in Puerto Rico for the present day climate is approximately 8–10 % of the current population for 5-year return period, with an increase in population exposure to flooding by 2–15 % and 1–20 % under 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures (5-year return period). This research demonstrates the significance of the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement goal for Small Island Developing States, providing the first event-based estimates of flooding from hurricane rainfall under climate change in a small island.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

05 Feb 2024
Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 °C climate change
Leanne Archer, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, Emily Vosper, Dereka Carroll, Jeison Sosa, and Daniel Mitchell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 375–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, 2024
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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

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We model hurricane rainfall-driven flooding to assess how the number of people exposed to...
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