the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
| 12 Jun 2023
Uncertainties, complexities and possible forecasting of the volcán de Colima energy emissions (México, years 2013–2015) based on the fractal reconstruction theorem
Xavier Lana
Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco
Raúl Arámbula-Mendoza
Abstract. A time series of effusive-explosive volcanic emissions of energy by the volcanic activity in Volcán de Colima (Western segment of Trans-Mexican volcanic belt, years 2013–2015) is analysed from the point of view of the reconstruction theorem, being considered several fractal computational procedures, such as the Hurst exponent (persistence, anti-persistence or randomness of the series), Lyapunov exponents and Kaplan-Yorke dimension (degree of forecasting difficulty on the series of energy emissions) and the correlation integral of the series, being obtained the Kolmogorov entropy and the embedding dimension (quantification of the degree of complexity and “loss of memory” of the physical mechanism along an episode of volcanic emissions). The analysed series have been chosen by applying the Gutenberg-Richter law to the logarithm of the complete energy emissions, being discarded those not accomplishing the mentioned law. Definitively, a series of 6182 explosive events and its seismic energy along years 2013–2015 has been selected. The reconstruction theorem algorithm is applied to the whole emission series, to 6 consecutive segments of 1000 emissions and to 21 moving window series of 2000 data lengths and shifts of 200 data, being also introduced and validated some examples of a nowcasting strategy. The main objective of this paper is to quantify the complexities concerning the physical and mathematical mechanisms governing these emissions, which are necessary for possible forecasting of explosive volcanic energy emissions with an enough degree of certainty.
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Notice on discussion status
The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.
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Preprint
(2347 KB)
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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.
- Preprint
(2347 KB) - Metadata XML
- BibTeX
- EndNote
- Final revised paper
Journal article(s) based on this preprint
Effusive–explosive volcanic energy emissions are a complex and dynamic physical phenomenon. The complexity of this process for the Volcán de Colima along the years 2013–2015 is analysed by means of the reconstruction theorem being determined by the persistence, complexity and “loss of memory” of the physical mechanism. The results suggest that appropriate forecasting algorithms could be applied to determine forthcoming high-energy emissions.
Xavier Lana et al.
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1153', Anonymous Referee #1, 14 Jun 2023
REVIEW ON THE PAPER“Uncertainties, complexities and possible forecasting of the volcán de Colima energy emissions (México, years 2013-2015) based on the fractal reconstruction theorem” by Xavier Lana, Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco, Raúl Arámbula-Mendoza
The paper “Uncertainties, complexities and possible forecasting of the volcán de Colima energy emissions (México, years 2013-2015) based on the fractal reconstruction theorem” contains an interesting analysis of the seismic activity of a Mexican volcano using fractal, informational, nowcasting and dynamical systems techniques. Results show occasional persistent patterns in volcanic activity but limited predictability.
While both the content and scientific approach to the subject of a so rich and integrated analysis make this paper an interesting and significant contribution, the manuscript is riddled with several minor and major mistakes throughout the main text, figures and in its structure itself which do not allow publication in the present version:
- The abstract is mainly devoted to methods without providing information about the content (volcanic activity), goals and results.
- The introduction is confusing and definitely a better and wider background should be provided to the interested reader. More references should be added.
- The section about data is a mix of discussions, analysis, and methods, while no link or reference is given for the data analysed in this study.
- The quality of some figures is poor; moreover, references to subfigures are sometimes missing and the measure units as well.
- Conclusions are not clear enough: what is the final output of authors’ analysis about the possible forecasting of the Colima volcano? I have read the paper and at the end I was not able to answer this crucial question without looking more times for information throughout the text and pictures.
- The quality of language is poor with misspellings, inaccurate terms, and sometimes convoluted sentences. I strongly suggest that the authors carefully read their draft and try to make it enjoyable to read.
Therefore, I think that, even though the content is intriguing, a really deep revision is needed to before the manuscript be eligible for publication in Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics and I am not sure that the amount of work required is suitable for a “major revision”; however, the decision must go to the editor.
Major and minor comments, request of improvements, corrections and suggestions are listed as comments in the main text, figures, and captions throughout the pdf file I attached.
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AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco, 02 Oct 2023
Dear Reviewer,
Thank you for your time in reviewing our manuscript. We include in a new version all your considerations. In particular, the figures were modified to have a better resolution and style. Moreover, the abstract has been better structured. Throughout the paper, we take the issue of methods wrong combined in other sections. The conclusions sections also pointed out clear results about the feasibility of generating future analysis forecasting on this Volcanic process thanks to the results found in the manuscript. I hope that the current version can be considered for publication in the NPG journal.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1153-AC1
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1153', Anonymous Referee #2, 14 Jul 2023
The article discusses methods for analyzing time series representing the power (the amount of energy released per unit time) of volcanic eruptions in Mexico. The general goal of such an analysis is to predict a certain number of time steps ahead. It is proposed to use an approach based on the use of nonlinear methods. The reason for this choice is that the data distribution satisfies the Gutenberg-Richter recurrence law, that is, it has self-similarity properties. To describe the data, such statistics as the Hurst exponent, Kolmogorov entropy, exponential Lyapunov exponents, and estimates of the hidden attractor dimension using the Grassberger–Procaccia correlation integral are used. Together, these methods represent a standard set of tools for analyzing the behavior of time series and estimating the depth of data memory, assuming the existence of some hidden non-linear mechanism that generates its time samples. For the actual prediction, a method is proposed, previously developed for the analysis of seismic catalogs, and called nowcasting. This method is based on calculating the average number of events whose power is less than a given threshold, which defines a "strong" event. The distribution function for the number of small events makes it possible to estimate the "seismic" potential, which, in relation to the analysis of volcanic activity, means an assessment of the level of danger of a strong eruption. Such nowcasting curves are shown in the article (Fig.10). However, they do not use in any way the previously made estimates of the nonlinear statistical characteristics of the time series of eruption intensity. Below are graphs of changes in the nonlinear parameters of the time series (Fig.11). The main remark to the content of the article is that it is necessary to more clearly indicate the relationship between the curves in Fig.10 and Fig.11. I have the impression that no such connection has been established at the present time. If so, then this should be written more specifically. The authors write that they plan to conduct further studies that may help to identify such a relationship. But now the content of the article is divided into 2 independent blocks: an estimate of the nonlinear parameters of the time series of eruption intensity and brief considerations regarding nowcasting, in which the remark is made that this method is apparently less effective for estimating the probability of strong eruptions than for earthquakes.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1153-RC2 -
AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco, 02 Oct 2023
Dear Reviewer,
Thank you for your time and effort in revising our work. We consider your comments in order to improve the paper and to give a more clear message about the strategy followed in the manuscript and the findings. We also modified the figures. In the new paper, you will find in red the sections and paragraphs modified.
Best regards,
Authors.Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1153-AC2
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AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco, 02 Oct 2023
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
-
RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1153', Anonymous Referee #1, 14 Jun 2023
REVIEW ON THE PAPER“Uncertainties, complexities and possible forecasting of the volcán de Colima energy emissions (México, years 2013-2015) based on the fractal reconstruction theorem” by Xavier Lana, Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco, Raúl Arámbula-Mendoza
The paper “Uncertainties, complexities and possible forecasting of the volcán de Colima energy emissions (México, years 2013-2015) based on the fractal reconstruction theorem” contains an interesting analysis of the seismic activity of a Mexican volcano using fractal, informational, nowcasting and dynamical systems techniques. Results show occasional persistent patterns in volcanic activity but limited predictability.
While both the content and scientific approach to the subject of a so rich and integrated analysis make this paper an interesting and significant contribution, the manuscript is riddled with several minor and major mistakes throughout the main text, figures and in its structure itself which do not allow publication in the present version:
- The abstract is mainly devoted to methods without providing information about the content (volcanic activity), goals and results.
- The introduction is confusing and definitely a better and wider background should be provided to the interested reader. More references should be added.
- The section about data is a mix of discussions, analysis, and methods, while no link or reference is given for the data analysed in this study.
- The quality of some figures is poor; moreover, references to subfigures are sometimes missing and the measure units as well.
- Conclusions are not clear enough: what is the final output of authors’ analysis about the possible forecasting of the Colima volcano? I have read the paper and at the end I was not able to answer this crucial question without looking more times for information throughout the text and pictures.
- The quality of language is poor with misspellings, inaccurate terms, and sometimes convoluted sentences. I strongly suggest that the authors carefully read their draft and try to make it enjoyable to read.
Therefore, I think that, even though the content is intriguing, a really deep revision is needed to before the manuscript be eligible for publication in Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics and I am not sure that the amount of work required is suitable for a “major revision”; however, the decision must go to the editor.
Major and minor comments, request of improvements, corrections and suggestions are listed as comments in the main text, figures, and captions throughout the pdf file I attached.
-
AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco, 02 Oct 2023
Dear Reviewer,
Thank you for your time in reviewing our manuscript. We include in a new version all your considerations. In particular, the figures were modified to have a better resolution and style. Moreover, the abstract has been better structured. Throughout the paper, we take the issue of methods wrong combined in other sections. The conclusions sections also pointed out clear results about the feasibility of generating future analysis forecasting on this Volcanic process thanks to the results found in the manuscript. I hope that the current version can be considered for publication in the NPG journal.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1153-AC1
-
RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1153', Anonymous Referee #2, 14 Jul 2023
The article discusses methods for analyzing time series representing the power (the amount of energy released per unit time) of volcanic eruptions in Mexico. The general goal of such an analysis is to predict a certain number of time steps ahead. It is proposed to use an approach based on the use of nonlinear methods. The reason for this choice is that the data distribution satisfies the Gutenberg-Richter recurrence law, that is, it has self-similarity properties. To describe the data, such statistics as the Hurst exponent, Kolmogorov entropy, exponential Lyapunov exponents, and estimates of the hidden attractor dimension using the Grassberger–Procaccia correlation integral are used. Together, these methods represent a standard set of tools for analyzing the behavior of time series and estimating the depth of data memory, assuming the existence of some hidden non-linear mechanism that generates its time samples. For the actual prediction, a method is proposed, previously developed for the analysis of seismic catalogs, and called nowcasting. This method is based on calculating the average number of events whose power is less than a given threshold, which defines a "strong" event. The distribution function for the number of small events makes it possible to estimate the "seismic" potential, which, in relation to the analysis of volcanic activity, means an assessment of the level of danger of a strong eruption. Such nowcasting curves are shown in the article (Fig.10). However, they do not use in any way the previously made estimates of the nonlinear statistical characteristics of the time series of eruption intensity. Below are graphs of changes in the nonlinear parameters of the time series (Fig.11). The main remark to the content of the article is that it is necessary to more clearly indicate the relationship between the curves in Fig.10 and Fig.11. I have the impression that no such connection has been established at the present time. If so, then this should be written more specifically. The authors write that they plan to conduct further studies that may help to identify such a relationship. But now the content of the article is divided into 2 independent blocks: an estimate of the nonlinear parameters of the time series of eruption intensity and brief considerations regarding nowcasting, in which the remark is made that this method is apparently less effective for estimating the probability of strong eruptions than for earthquakes.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1153-RC2 -
AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco, 02 Oct 2023
Dear Reviewer,
Thank you for your time and effort in revising our work. We consider your comments in order to improve the paper and to give a more clear message about the strategy followed in the manuscript and the findings. We also modified the figures. In the new paper, you will find in red the sections and paragraphs modified.
Best regards,
Authors.Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1153-AC2
-
AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco, 02 Oct 2023
Peer review completion
Journal article(s) based on this preprint
Effusive–explosive volcanic energy emissions are a complex and dynamic physical phenomenon. The complexity of this process for the Volcán de Colima along the years 2013–2015 is analysed by means of the reconstruction theorem being determined by the persistence, complexity and “loss of memory” of the physical mechanism. The results suggest that appropriate forecasting algorithms could be applied to determine forthcoming high-energy emissions.
Xavier Lana et al.
Xavier Lana et al.
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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.
- Preprint
(2347 KB) - Metadata XML