16 Nov 2022
16 Nov 2022
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Changes in global teleconnection patterns under global warming and stratospheric aerosol intervention scenarios

Abolfazl Rezaei1,2, Khalil Karami3, Simone Tilmes4, and John C. Moore5,6,7 Abolfazl Rezaei et al.
  • 1Department of Earth Sciences, Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences, Zanjan 45137–66731, Iran
  • 2Center for Research in Climate Change and Global Warming (CRCC), Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences (IASBS), Zanjan 45137–66731, Iran
  • 3Institut für Meteorologie, Stephanstraße 3, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
  • 4National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
  • 5College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
  • 6CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
  • 7Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, 96101, Finland

Abstract. We investigate the potential impact of Stratospheric Aerosol Intervention (SAI) on the spatiotemporal behavior of large-scale climate teleconnection patterns represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) indices using simulations from the Community Earth System Models (CESM1 and CESM2). The leading Empirical Orthogonal Function of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies indicates that greenhouse gas forcing is accompanied by increases in variance across both the North Atlantic (i.e., AMO) and North Pacific (i.e., PDO) and a decrease over the tropical Pacific (i.e., ENSO); however, SAI effectively reverses these global warming-imposed changes. The projected spatial patterns of SST anomaly related to ENSO show no significant change under either global warming or SAI. In contrast, the spatial anomaly patterns pertaining to AMO (i.e., in the North Atlantic) and PDO (i.e., in the North Pacific) changes under global warming are effectively suppressed by SAI. For AMO, the low contrast between the cold-tongue pattern and its surroundings in the North Atlantic, predicted under global warming, is restored under SAI scenarios to similar patterns as in the historical period. The frequencies of El Niño and La Niña episodes increase with greenhouse gas emissions in the models, while SAI tends to compensate for them. All climate indices’ dominant modes of inter-annual variability are projected to be preserved in both warming and SAI scenarios. However, the dominant decadal and interdecadal variability mode changes induced by global warming are exacerbated by SAI, particularly in the Atlantic-based AMO.

Abolfazl Rezaei et al.

Status: open (until 28 Dec 2022)

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Abolfazl Rezaei et al.

Abolfazl Rezaei et al.


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Short summary
Teleconnections are important characteristics of the climate system, well-known examples include the El Niño and La Niña events driven from the tropical Pacific. We examined how patterns that arise in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans behave under stratospheric aerosol geoengineering and greenhouse gas-induced warming. In general, geoengineering reverses trends, however in the Atlantic, the multidecadal oscillations that are shifted to higher frequencies by greenhouse gas are further strengthened.