Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-151
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-151
26 Apr 2022
 | 26 Apr 2022

The modelled climatic response to the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and its role in decadal temperature trends

Manoj Joshi, Robert Hall, David Stevens, and Ed Hawkins

Abstract. The 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle arises from variations in the angle of the Moon’s orbital plane. Previous work has linked the nodal cycle to climate but has been limited, either by the length of observations analysed, or geographical regions considered in model simulations of the pre-industrial period. Here we examine the global effect of the lunar nodal cycle in multi-centennial climate model simulations of the pre-industrial period. We find cyclic signals in global and regional surface air temperature having amplitudes of O (0.1 K), ocean heat uptake and ocean heat content. The timing of anomalies of global surface air temperature and heat uptake are consistent with the so-called slowdown in global warming in the first decade of the 21st century, also displaying warmer than average Arctic surface temperatures at the same time. The lunar nodal cycle causes variations in mean sea level pressure exceeding 0.5 hPa in the Nordic seas region, thus affecting the North Atlantic Oscillation Index during boreal winter. Our results suggest that the contribution of the lunar nodal cycle to global temperature should be negative in the mid-2020s before becoming positive again in the early-2030s, reducing the uncertainty in time at which projected global temperature reaches 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

18 Apr 2023
The modelled climatic response to the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and its role in decadal temperature trends
Manoj Joshi, Robert A. Hall, David P. Stevens, and Ed Hawkins
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 443–455, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-443-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-443-2023, 2023
Short summary
Manoj Joshi, Robert Hall, David Stevens, and Ed Hawkins

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • AC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-151', Manoj Joshi, 03 May 2022
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-151', Michael Wallace, 05 May 2022
  • CC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-151', Paul PUKITE, 12 May 2022
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-151', Anonymous Referee #1, 20 May 2022
    • CC3: 'Reply on RC1', Paul PUKITE, 23 May 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Manoj Joshi, 02 Dec 2022
  • CC4: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-151', Mikh Kova, 05 Jul 2022
    • EC1: 'Reply on CC4', Axel Kleidon, 26 Aug 2022
  • CC5: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-151', Adam Blaker, 18 Aug 2022
    • RC3: 'Reply on CC5', Adam Blaker, 23 Aug 2022
      • AC5: 'Reply on RC3', Manoj Joshi, 02 Dec 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-151', Adam Blaker, 23 Aug 2022
  • RC4: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-151', Anonymous Referee #3, 24 Aug 2022

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • AC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-151', Manoj Joshi, 03 May 2022
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-151', Michael Wallace, 05 May 2022
  • CC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-151', Paul PUKITE, 12 May 2022
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-151', Anonymous Referee #1, 20 May 2022
    • CC3: 'Reply on RC1', Paul PUKITE, 23 May 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Manoj Joshi, 02 Dec 2022
  • CC4: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-151', Mikh Kova, 05 Jul 2022
    • EC1: 'Reply on CC4', Axel Kleidon, 26 Aug 2022
  • CC5: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-151', Adam Blaker, 18 Aug 2022
    • RC3: 'Reply on CC5', Adam Blaker, 23 Aug 2022
      • AC5: 'Reply on RC3', Manoj Joshi, 02 Dec 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-151', Adam Blaker, 23 Aug 2022
  • RC4: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-151', Anonymous Referee #3, 24 Aug 2022

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (19 Dec 2022) by Axel Kleidon
AR by Manoj Joshi on behalf of the Authors (16 Jan 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (16 Feb 2023) by Axel Kleidon
RR by Adam Blaker (28 Feb 2023)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (28 Feb 2023) by Axel Kleidon
AR by Manoj Joshi on behalf of the Authors (03 Mar 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (24 Mar 2023) by Axel Kleidon
AR by Manoj Joshi on behalf of the Authors (27 Mar 2023)

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

18 Apr 2023
The modelled climatic response to the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and its role in decadal temperature trends
Manoj Joshi, Robert A. Hall, David P. Stevens, and Ed Hawkins
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 443–455, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-443-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-443-2023, 2023
Short summary
Manoj Joshi, Robert Hall, David Stevens, and Ed Hawkins

Data sets

Lunar nodal cycle forcing data M. Joshi, R. Hall, D. Stevens, E. Hawkins https://research-portal.uea.ac.uk/en/datasets/lunar-nodal-cycle-amplitude-modulation-map

Manoj Joshi, Robert Hall, David Stevens, and Ed Hawkins

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Latest update: 01 Sep 2024
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Short summary
The 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle arises from variations in the angle of the Moon’s orbital plane and affects ocean tides. In this work we use a climate model to examine the effect of this cycle on the ocean, surface and atmosphere. The timing of anomalies is consistent with the so-called slowdown in global warming, and have implications for when global temperatures will exceed 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels. Regional anomalies have implications for seasonal climate over Europe especially.