12 Dec 2022
12 Dec 2022
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Uncertainty analysis of single- and multiple-size-class frazil ice models

Fabien Souillé1, Cédric Goeury1, and Rem-Sophia Mouradi2,3 Fabien Souillé et al.
  • 1EDF R&D, National Laboratory for Hydraulics and Environment (LNHE), 6 Quai Watier, 78400 Chatou, France
  • 2EDF R&D, Fluid Dynamics, Energy and Environment Department (MFEE), 6 Quai Watier, 78400 Chatou, France
  • 3CEREA (Centre d’Enseignement et de Recherche en Environnement Atmosphérique), Joint Laboratory École des Ponts ParisTech and EDF R&D, Université Paris-Est, 77455 Marne-la-Vallée, France

Abstract. The formation of frazil ice in supercooled waters has been extensively studied, both experimentally and numerically, in recent years. Numerical models, with varying degrees of complexity, have been proposed; these are often based on many parameters, the values of which are uncertain and difficult to estimate. In this paper, an uncertainty analysis of two mathematical models that simulate supercooling and frazil ice formation is carried out within a probabilistic framework. The two main goals are (i) to provide quantitative insight into the relative importance of contributing uncertain parameters, to help identify parameters for optimal calibration, and (ii) to compare the output scatter of frazil ice models with single and multiple crystal size classes. The derivation of single- and multi-class models is presented in light of recent work, their numerical resolution is discussed, and a list of the main uncertain parameters is proposed. An uncertainty analysis is then carried out in three steps. Parameter uncertainty is first quantified, based on recent field, laboratory and numerical studies. Uncertainties are then propagated through the models using Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, the relative influence of uncertain parameters on the output time series – i.e. the total frazil volume fraction and water temperature – is assessed by means of Sobol indices. The influence of input parameters on the long-term asymptotic as well as short-term transient evolution of the systems is discussed, depending on whether gravitational removal is included or not in the models.

Fabien Souillé et al.

Status: open (until 06 Feb 2023)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1162', Mark Loewen, 18 Jan 2023 reply

Fabien Souillé et al.

Fabien Souillé et al.


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Short summary
Models that can predict temperature and ice crystals formation (frazil) in water are important for river and coastal engineering. Indeed, frazil has direct impact on submerged structures and often precedes formation of ice cover. In this paper, an uncertainty analysis of two mathematical models that simulate supercooling and frazil is carried out within a probabilistic framework. The presented methodology, offers new insight on the models and their parameterization.