Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1101
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1101
20 Oct 2022
 | 20 Oct 2022

Future changes in atmospheric rivers over East Asia under stratospheric aerosol intervention

Ju Liang and Jim Haywood

Abstract. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are closely associated with historical extreme precipitation events over East Asia. The projected increase in such weather systems under global warming has been extensively discussed in previous studies, while the role of stratospheric aerosol, particularly for the implementation of stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI), in such a change remains unknown. Based on an ensemble of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) simulations, here we investigate changes in the frequency of ARs and their associated mean and extreme precipitation under a range of climate forcing, including greenhouse gas emission scenarios of high (SSP5-8.5) and medium (SSP2-4.5) levels, the deployment of SAI geoengineering (G6sulfur) and solar dimming (G6solar). The result indicates a significant increase in AR frequency and AR-related precipitation over most of East Asia in a warmer climate and the most pronounced changes are observed in southern China. Comparing to G6solar and both the SSPs scenarios, the G6sulfur simulations indicate that SAI is effective in partly ameliorating the increases in AR activity over the subtropical region; however, it may result in more pronounced increases in ARs and associated precipitation over the mid-high latitude regions, particularly northeastern China and Japan. Such a response is associated with the further weakening of the mid-latitude westerly jet stream under SAI that favours the high-latitude AR activity. This is driven by the decreased meridional gradient of thermal expansion in the mid-high troposphere associated with aerosol cooling across the tropical region, though SAI effectively ameliorates the widespread increase in thermal expansion under climate warming. Such a side effect of SAI over the populated region implies that caution must be taken when considering geoengineering approaches to mitigating hydrological risk under climate change.

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

30 Jan 2023
Future changes in atmospheric rivers over East Asia under stratospheric aerosol intervention
Ju Liang and Jim Haywood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1687–1703, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1687-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1687-2023, 2023
Short summary

Ju Liang and Jim Haywood

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1101', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 Nov 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Ju Liang, 10 Jan 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1101', Anonymous Referee #2, 09 Nov 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Ju Liang, 10 Jan 2023

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1101', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 Nov 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Ju Liang, 10 Jan 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1101', Anonymous Referee #2, 09 Nov 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Ju Liang, 10 Jan 2023

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Ju Liang on behalf of the Authors (10 Jan 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (10 Jan 2023) by Geraint Vaughan
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (12 Jan 2023)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (13 Jan 2023)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (16 Jan 2023) by Geraint Vaughan
AR by Ju Liang on behalf of the Authors (16 Jan 2023)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

30 Jan 2023
Future changes in atmospheric rivers over East Asia under stratospheric aerosol intervention
Ju Liang and Jim Haywood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1687–1703, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1687-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1687-2023, 2023
Short summary

Ju Liang and Jim Haywood

Ju Liang and Jim Haywood

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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
The recent record-breaking flood events in China during the summer of 2021 highlight the importance of mitigating the risks from future changes in high-impact weather systems under global warming. Based on a state-of-the-art earth system model, we demonstrate a pilot study on the responses of atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation over East Asia to anthropogenically-induced climate warming and an unconventional mitigation strategy - stratospheric aerosol injection.