Extratropical teleconnections in a multi-model ensemble nudged towards the observed QBO

Abstract. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), the dominant mode of interannual variability of monthly-mean zonal winds and temperatures in the equatorial stratosphere, has a significant influence on the circulation in other regions of the stratosphere and troposphere in boreal winter. To better understand these teleconnections, results from twelve models are analysed for three complementary experiments in which the QBO is either internally generated by the models (free-running), nudged towards the observed QBO, or nudged towards the observed climatology. For the multi-model ensemble mean we assess how well the free-running experiment captures the observed teleconnections, and whether the simulated teleconnections improve when the models have a more realistic QBO.

The observed relationship between the QBO phase and the strength of the boreal winter Polar Night Jet is weakly captured by the free-running experiment. This relationship is strengthened when the models are nudged towards the observed QBO, primarily because a larger proportion of the models exhibit this relationship. Both free-running and nudged-QBO experiments capture a robust but small and insignificant increase in Sudden Stratospheric Warning (SSW) frequency during the QBO-easterly phase. Neither experiment captures the observed QBO influence on the timings of SSWs during winter nor the QBO teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Nudging the QBO does, however, influence the latitudinal profile of the North Pacific sub-tropical jet and strength of tropical precipitation.

We find that a more realistic representation of the QBO is beneficial for certain teleconnections, but that effective teleconnections are ultimately reliant on how well the models respond to the QBO.