Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-680
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-680
09 Mar 2026
 | 09 Mar 2026

Survival analysis for droplet-freezing data: Kaplan–Meier confidence intervals and log-rank tests

Thomas F. Whale, Sarah L. Barr, and Trystan Surawy-Stepney

Abstract. Droplet‑freezing assays underpin immersion‑mode ice‑nucleation research yet approaches to uncertainty quantification for fraction‑frozen curves and derived active‑site densities (ns(T)) are inconsistent. Further, there is not currently a rigorous method for significance testing the difference between fraction frozen curves. To address these issues, we recast droplet‑freezing measurements as survival data and apply analysis techniques typically used in medical statistics. Using the Kaplan–Meier estimator, we derive nonparametric confidence intervals for droplet fraction frozen and ns(T) without binning or model assumptions, matching Monte‑Carlo and studentized‑bootstrapped intervals on a literature volcanic ash ice nucleation dataset. Confidence intervals calculated for simulated datasets show precision improves with sample size and with steeper fraction frozen curves. Adapting the log-rank test, we introduce a method for comparing fraction frozen curves and demonstrate its application to literature and simulated droplet freezing datasets. We recommend reporting Kaplan–Meier confidence intervals on droplet freezing datasets and employing the log-rank test when comparing droplet fraction frozen curves.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

23 Oct 2026
Survival-analysis methods for droplet-freezing data: Kaplan–Meier confidence intervals and non-parametric curve comparison
Thomas F. Whale, Trystan Surawy-Stepney, and Sarah L. Barr
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 19, 6699–6718, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-6699-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-6699-2026, 2026
Short summary
Thomas F. Whale, Sarah L. Barr, and Trystan Surawy-Stepney

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-680', Anonymous Referee #1, 10 Apr 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-680', Anonymous Referee #2, 14 Apr 2026
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-680', Anonymous Referee #3, 04 May 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Thomas F. Whale on behalf of the Authors (28 Jul 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (29 Jul 2026) by Cuiqi Zhang
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (18 Aug 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (26 Aug 2026)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (01 Sep 2026) by Cuiqi Zhang
AR by Thomas F. Whale on behalf of the Authors (23 Sep 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (06 Oct 2026) by Cuiqi Zhang
AR by Thomas F. Whale on behalf of the Authors (12 Oct 2026)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-680', Anonymous Referee #1, 10 Apr 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-680', Anonymous Referee #2, 14 Apr 2026
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-680', Anonymous Referee #3, 04 May 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Thomas F. Whale on behalf of the Authors (28 Jul 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (29 Jul 2026) by Cuiqi Zhang
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (18 Aug 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (26 Aug 2026)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (01 Sep 2026) by Cuiqi Zhang
AR by Thomas F. Whale on behalf of the Authors (23 Sep 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (06 Oct 2026) by Cuiqi Zhang
AR by Thomas F. Whale on behalf of the Authors (12 Oct 2026)

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

23 Oct 2026
Survival-analysis methods for droplet-freezing data: Kaplan–Meier confidence intervals and non-parametric curve comparison
Thomas F. Whale, Trystan Surawy-Stepney, and Sarah L. Barr
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 19, 6699–6718, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-6699-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-6699-2026, 2026
Short summary
Thomas F. Whale, Sarah L. Barr, and Trystan Surawy-Stepney

Interactive computing environment

KM-nucleation-stats Tom Whale https://github.com/TFWhale/KM-nucleation-stats

Thomas F. Whale, Sarah L. Barr, and Trystan Surawy-Stepney

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Latest update: 05 Nov 2026
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Short summary
Droplet-freezing experiments are used to study ice formation in the atmosphere, but standard methods to show uncertainty or test whether two results differ are lacking. We borrow from medical ‘time-to-event’ statistics to add easily-calculated confidence intervals to fraction-frozen curves and derived quantities without binning or assumptions about underlying physics, and adapt a test to judge whether curves differ beyond random variation. This will make comparison of studies easier.
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