Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-674
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-674
24 Feb 2026
 | 24 Feb 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

Correct use of radiative efficiencies in calculating global warming potentials and other emission metrics

William James Collins, Øivind Hodnebrog, Keith Peter Shine, and James B. Burkholder

Abstract. The calculations of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) and other related climate emission metrics should use radiative efficiencies that are representative of the mean atmospheric mole fraction, rather than the surface mole fraction as is commonly used. This correction leads to an upward revision of GWP values. Radiative forcing from projected changes in mean atmospheric mole fraction (such as for climate scenario) also need to be corrected. For species with lifetimes greater than a few years, the revision is an increase of a few percent e.g., 8 % for trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11). For species with lifetimes less than a year this correction can lead to increases in the GWPs (and in some cases radiative forcing) of tens of percent, which could impact on policymaker decisions on the desirability of using such gases.

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William James Collins, Øivind Hodnebrog, Keith Peter Shine, and James B. Burkholder

Status: open (until 13 Apr 2026)

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William James Collins, Øivind Hodnebrog, Keith Peter Shine, and James B. Burkholder
William James Collins, Øivind Hodnebrog, Keith Peter Shine, and James B. Burkholder

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Short summary
The global warming potential (GWP) is a commonly used metric for relating the climate impact of emissions of a gas relative to that for carbon dioxide. We show that previous calculations have systematically underestimated these values by applying calculations of radiative forcing efficiency appropriate to changes in surface mole fractions rather than changes in the mass-weighted mean mole fraction in the atmosphere.
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