Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-583
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-583
19 Feb 2026
 | 19 Feb 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).

HESS Opinions: Applied hydrologic models in the era of machine learning – retain, revamp, reconcile, or replace?

Delanie Williams, Mukesh Kumar, Katie van Werkhoven, Martyn Clark, Christopher Wilson, and Paul Miller

Abstract. Despite advancements in the performance of machine learning (ML) based hydrologic models, some institutions are hesitant to pursue ML as a replacement for existing conceptual or process-based hydrologic models in many applications. In several of these circumstances, traditional hydrologic models continue to be favored due to their familiarity, reliability, interpretability, established performance benchmarks under varied settings, availability of detailed training modules and a trained workforce, as well as close integration with data, processing, and decision-making pipelines. Recognizing these advantages, this perspective argues for two pragmatic and institutionally compatible paths forward for integration of ML within applied models: (1) reconciling ML as a complementary option in applied hydrologic modeling workflows; and (2) revamping or upskilling hydrologic modeling workflows using ML. To support this perspective, we highlight key opportunities where ML can be used as a tool to enhance results across various stages of the model implementation and operational workflow including data pre-processing, parameter calibration, parameter transferability, data assimilation, solver enhancement, accelerating scenario simulations and post-processing. Each of these two integration strategies can be implemented into current applied model frameworks, thereby combining the strengths of both physical modeling and ML. These strategies can help overcome current bottlenecks and address institutional needs of continuity and compatibility, while also offering the potential to improve model performance with ML.

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Delanie Williams, Mukesh Kumar, Katie van Werkhoven, Martyn Clark, Christopher Wilson, and Paul Miller

Status: open (until 02 Apr 2026)

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Delanie Williams, Mukesh Kumar, Katie van Werkhoven, Martyn Clark, Christopher Wilson, and Paul Miller
Delanie Williams, Mukesh Kumar, Katie van Werkhoven, Martyn Clark, Christopher Wilson, and Paul Miller
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Short summary
Machine learning (ML) models have potential within water resource management to be used in place of traditional models. However, there is hesitance for many agencies and institutions to pursue ML models, due to existing familiarity, reliability, interpretability, resources, and workflows. Thus, instead of opting for complete retention of traditional models, or complete replacement by ML models, this perspective argues for the selective integration of ML within existing models.
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