the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
| 15 Jan 2026
Brief communication: Atmospheric moisture and near-surface temperature anomalies: key drivers in the 2022 European mega-drought
Abstract. Using a Lagrangian framework, we show that the 2022 European drought was driven by a sharp reduction in precipitation contributions from Atlantic and Mediterranean moisture sources, despite enhanced atmospheric moisture uptake. Persistent anticyclonic circulation suppressed convection and diverted moisture away from Europe. Lagrangian temperature-source decomposition reveals strong adiabatic warming as the dominant heat driver. Together, weakened oceanic moisture supply and subsidence-driven warming sustained and intensified the drought.
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Status: open (until 07 Mar 2026)
- RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-57', Anonymous Referee #1, 21 Feb 2026 reply
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José C. Fernández-Alvarez
Raquel Nieto
Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano
David Carvalho
Luis Gimeno
We show that the 2022 European drought was driven by a sharp reduction in precipitation contributions from Atlantic and Mediterranean moisture sources, despite enhanced atmospheric moisture uptake. Persistent anticyclonic circulation suppressed convection and diverted moisture away from Europe. Lagrangian temperature-source decomposition reveals strong adiabatic warming as the dominant heat driver.
We show that the 2022 European drought was driven by a sharp reduction in precipitation...
Review of “Atmospheric moisture and near-surface temperature anomalies: key drivers in the 2022 European mega-drought” by Fernández-Alvarez et al. (2026)
General assessment
This brief communication analyzes the 2022 drought from a Lagrangian perspective, highlighting the role of moisture sources and the nature of the heating that enhanced the drought. It is an interesting contribution; however, the degree of novelty appears moderate. Despite the very notable tracking techniques employed, the manuscript ultimately provides incremental progress in our understanding of the 2022 drought.
I recommend publication after revision, provided that the comments below are addressed.
General comment
The main statement in the abstract is that the 2022 drought was driven by “a sharp reduction in precipitation contributions from Atlantic and Mediterranean moisture sources, despite enhanced atmospheric moisture uptake.” However, is this result truly surprising? There are many regions in the world where precipitable water (PW) is abundant in the atmosphere, yet conditions remain dry (for example, the Red Sea region).
It is well established that it is not the IVT of PW itself that determines rainfall, but rather the convergence of low-level IVT. I therefore encourage the authors to better clarify - in case I may have misunderstood or overlooked something - what the main points of novelty are.
Specific comments
L46
Is the choice of June–August arbitrary? Why not consider October–December, when SPEI6 also shows very low values?
L53–54
It seems that something is missing before “SPEI6.” Moreover, SPEI6 remains low for the entire period until November, so this statement does not appear to be fully supported by the evidence.
Figure S3
The decision to show all anomalies using dashed contours is unfortunate, as it makes it difficult to distinguish positive from negative anomalies. Why not represent anomalies using color shading and the mean field with contours?
L65–70
Why not consider the divergence of IVT rather than IVT itself? Ultimately, we know that divergence is related to E–P (from the water balance equation), not IVT per se.
Figure 1
This figure is poorly designed: it contains too many panels, the labels are very small and difficult to read, and there is no legend indicating which bars refer to NW Europe or SE Europe. I strongly encourage the authors to improve its legibility and overall quality.
Figure 2
Why are April and September missing from this diagram?
L211–212
Is this result truly surprising? Please see my comment in the General section.