Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5569
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-5569
02 Oct 2026
 | 02 Oct 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).

A visco-elastic phase-field model for calving in ice

Daniel H. Richards, Robert J. Arthern, and Oliver J. Marsh

Abstract. Iceberg calving accounts for around half of the ice lost annually from Antarctica, but realistic representation of fracture and calving in large-scale ice sheet models remains a major unsolved problem in glaciology. We present a new phase-field visco-elastic model for fracture. The model can capture both the long timescale visco-elastic deformation of ice, as well as the nucleation and evolution of fractures. By incorporating the effect of pore pressure into the degraded tensile energy, the model can also nucleate basal crevasses. We show that this approach is capable of simulating the physical process of calving. Numerical experiments suggest that, for a floating ice shelf with no variation across flow the calving rate for thin-end calving scales with the ice thickness to a power of around 5.5 to 9.5. The equations make no assumptions about the style of calving, and can therefore also simulate numerous more realistic settings in Antarctica for which material parameters and three-dimensional effects can be expected to influence the calving rate.

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Daniel H. Richards, Robert J. Arthern, and Oliver J. Marsh

Status: open (until 13 Nov 2026)

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Daniel H. Richards, Robert J. Arthern, and Oliver J. Marsh
Daniel H. Richards, Robert J. Arthern, and Oliver J. Marsh
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Short summary
Iceberg calving is a major source of ice loss from Antarctica, yet predicting when and how this happens remains difficult. We develop a mathematical model that simulates how ice deforms over years, but also how it suddenly fractures. Our model can represent cracks on the surface and base of the ice. Our results show the rate of ice loss depends strongly on thickness. The model can reproduce different ways in which icebergs calve, allowing better predictions of future ice loss and sea-level rise.
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