Dynamical adjustment and observational constraints to estimate recent forced European warming

Abstract. Europe has experienced rapid warming in recent decades. Previous studies have shown that changes in atmospheric circulation can explain part of this warming, but whether these dynamical changes are driven by internal variability or by external forcings remains unclear. In this study, we provide an estimate of the forced dynamical response over the 1979–2024 period, combining dynamical adjustment and observational constraint methods. While non-dynamical processes account for most of the observed warming, we show that the dynamical component also contains a non-negligible positive forced contribution. Overall, by incorporating dynamical information into observational constraints, we provide a new estimate of the future European warming, but find that this addition does not substantially reduce the uncertainty in climate projections.