| 30 Jan 2026
Climate change and irrigation expansion reshape the water pressure and upstream–downstream interactions in the Lancang–Mekong River Basin
Abstract. In transboundary river basins, water resource pressure results from the combined effects of internal water use growth, external transboundary withdrawal, and climate change, yet the relative contributions of these drivers to both water pressure and upstream–downstream interactions remain poorly quantified. To address this issue, this study adopts the Pressure–State–Response analytical framework to explicitly disentangle and characterize the spatiotemporal patterns and evolution of irrigation water withdrawal pressure in the Lancang–Mekong River Basin under the climate change. Results indicate that the proportion of irrigation water withdrawal relative to available water exhibits a persistent increasing trend. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, this proportion is projected to rise to 19 % annually and 59 % during the dry season by 2040. The impact of irrigation water withdrawal on downstream water availability is significantly greater than that on upstream regions, particularly during the dry season. In the historical period, internal irrigation water withdrawal pressure dominates in Subregions 1 (China), 8 (primarily in Thailand), and 13 (primarily in Vietnam), exceeding external pressure from upstream irrigation water withdrawal, whereas external irrigation-induced water appropriation is the primary driver in the remaining subregions. Under future climate scenarios (2021–2040), both internal and external irrigation pressures intensify across the basin, exhibiting pronounced nonlinear dynamics and spatial heterogeneity. Notably, Subregion 8 undergoes a structural shift in dominant pressure, transitioning from internally driven irrigation pressure in the historical period to externally driven irrigation appropriation in the future. Meanwhile, the growth rates of irrigation water withdrawal pressure are redistributed spatially: compared to the historical period, the growth of external irrigation pressure slows in downstream subregions (9–13), while it continues to increase in midstream and upstream subregions (2–8). The analysis aims to identify vulnerable components of the basin system, clarify transboundary responsibility allocation, and support differentiated water governance strategies.
Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Hydrology and Earth System Sciences.
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