29 Sep 2026
| 29 Sep 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Brief communication: Simulations indicate, the multi-year drought of 2018–2023 could have happened in the 1960s
Abstract. Duration and intensity of the multi-year drought of 2018–2023 had not been anticipated in Germany. Self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) data calculated from EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations shows multi-year, high-intensity droughts occurring over large portions of Germany throughout the period 1950 to 2100. Although droughts lasting about 5.5 years and affecting more than half of Germany like the observed 2018–2023 event are rare in the simulations, even longer and more intense large-scale droughts occur. Consequently, multi-year large scale drought was part of the past climatology for Germany and projections stress the necessity to build resilience to comparable and even more impactful events.
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