Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4720
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4720
14 Aug 2026
 | 14 Aug 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Methodological Framework for Tsunami Risk Assessment in Port Facilities

Sergio Padilla, Ignacio Aguirre-Ayerbe, Mauricio González, Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga, and David Galán Pérez

Abstract. The present study proposes a comprehensive methodological framework for the assessment of tsunami risk in port terminals. Although tsunami hazard modeling has advanced significantly, the development of asset-specific vulnerability functions and risk indicators at the terminal scale remains a critical challenge, hindering the effective integration of scientific knowledge into operational port planning. The main objective of this study is to propose a methodological framework specifically tailored to tsunami risk assessment in port terminals. The analysis focuses on assessing damage to key components of the port supply chain located within the port’s landside operational area and directly exposed to tsunami impacts. The proposed framework integrates advanced numerical hydrodynamic modeling, dynamic exposure analyses and asset-specific damage states. Its main novelty lies in the quantification of vulnerability thresholds based on hydrodynamic failure mechanisms for heterogeneous port assets, including container stacks, gantry cranes, liquid bulk tanks, Ro-Ro, and pedestrians. The methodology was applied to the Port of Cádiz, Spain. The results show that relative tsunami risk is spatially concentrated in specific operational areas and assets, particularly container storage yards and passenger circulation zones. The proposed framework is modular and can be adapted to other port contexts, provided that suitable local hazard, exposure, and asset information is available. Rather than providing absolute estimates of losses, the framework offers a spatially explicit decision-support basis for identifying critical assets, comparing relative risk among docks, and prioritising further detailed assessments or mitigation actions.

Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Sergio Padilla, Ignacio Aguirre-Ayerbe, Mauricio González, Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga, and David Galán Pérez

Status: open (until 25 Sep 2026)

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Sergio Padilla, Ignacio Aguirre-Ayerbe, Mauricio González, Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga, and David Galán Pérez
Sergio Padilla, Ignacio Aguirre-Ayerbe, Mauricio González, Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga, and David Galán Pérez
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Latest update: 14 Aug 2026
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Short summary
Ports are vital to global trade and can be severely affected by tsunamis. This study has developed a practical framework to identify which port areas and assets are most at risk, using the Port of Cádiz in Spain as a case study. The results show that risk is concentrated in specific docks and assets, especially container yards, vehicle areas, and passenger routes. The framework can support port authorities to prioritize safety measures for future events.
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