Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4135
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4135
22 Jul 2026
 | 22 Jul 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Modulation of the Semi-Annual Oscillation in QBOi Models

Aleena M. Jaison, Lesley J. Gray, Scott M. Osprey, James A. Anstey, Martin B. Andrews, Neal Butchart, Zhaoyang Chai, Dong-Chan Hong, Kai Huang, Yoshio Kawatani, Jeff R. Knight, Pu Lin, Francois Lott, Yixiong Lu, Hiroaki Naoe, Jadwiga H. Richter, Nan Rosenbloom, Federico Serva, Anne K. Smith, Seok-Woo Son, Qi Tang, Shingo Watanabe, Jinbo Xie, and Kohei Yoshida

Abstract. As part of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi) phase 1, a model-intercomparison study explored the representation of the semi-annual oscillation (SAO) in participating models and found a common easterly bias of several tens of m/s compared to observations, mostly with weaker westerly phases and stronger easterly phases. QBOi phase 1 results also reported biases in model representations of the QBO, which dominates the region below the SAO, with most models displaying a westerly time mean wind bias, and generally weaker QBO easterly phases. Given that the SAO forcing terms can be influenced by the QBO, in this paper we explore the influence of these QBO biases on the representation of the SAO. A multi-model analysis is conducted here using QBOi phase 2 data from current state-of-the-art climate models to examine changes in representation of the SAO in response to corrections in zonal-mean zonal wind QBO biases. Most models show an improvement with a reduced easterly SAO bias in response to the corrected QBO bias. The extent of this response is found to vary significantly across models with SAO time-mean winds changing by 6 % to 403 % in simulations with a bias-corrected QBO relative to the control simulations. Changed gravity wave drag in response to the improved QBO is attributed as the forcing term having the largest overall impact.

Competing interests: JA serves as co-editor for the special issue to which this paper belongs. The remaining authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Aleena M. Jaison, Lesley J. Gray, Scott M. Osprey, James A. Anstey, Martin B. Andrews, Neal Butchart, Zhaoyang Chai, Dong-Chan Hong, Kai Huang, Yoshio Kawatani, Jeff R. Knight, Pu Lin, Francois Lott, Yixiong Lu, Hiroaki Naoe, Jadwiga H. Richter, Nan Rosenbloom, Federico Serva, Anne K. Smith, Seok-Woo Son, Qi Tang, Shingo Watanabe, Jinbo Xie, and Kohei Yoshida

Status: open (until 02 Sep 2026)

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Aleena M. Jaison, Lesley J. Gray, Scott M. Osprey, James A. Anstey, Martin B. Andrews, Neal Butchart, Zhaoyang Chai, Dong-Chan Hong, Kai Huang, Yoshio Kawatani, Jeff R. Knight, Pu Lin, Francois Lott, Yixiong Lu, Hiroaki Naoe, Jadwiga H. Richter, Nan Rosenbloom, Federico Serva, Anne K. Smith, Seok-Woo Son, Qi Tang, Shingo Watanabe, Jinbo Xie, and Kohei Yoshida
Aleena M. Jaison, Lesley J. Gray, Scott M. Osprey, James A. Anstey, Martin B. Andrews, Neal Butchart, Zhaoyang Chai, Dong-Chan Hong, Kai Huang, Yoshio Kawatani, Jeff R. Knight, Pu Lin, Francois Lott, Yixiong Lu, Hiroaki Naoe, Jadwiga H. Richter, Nan Rosenbloom, Federico Serva, Anne K. Smith, Seok-Woo Son, Qi Tang, Shingo Watanabe, Jinbo Xie, and Kohei Yoshida
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Short summary
The tropical upper stratosphere has winds that switch between westerly and easterly every six months known as the semi-annual oscillation (SAO). Climate models commonly show an easterly bias in the SAO. We analysed data from many models to test if correcting the biases in winds lower in the stratosphere could improve SAO. We find correcting the lower-level wind biases reduces the SAO easterly bias, though further improvements, such as better representation of atmospheric waves, are still needed.
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