Identifying regions of Europe which may be less prepared for extreme rainfall

Abstract. Societal preparedness to extreme rainfall events varies geographically. We present a method to assess assumed preparedness based on observational data alone, investigating record daily rainfall across Europe. To define assumed preparedness, we use two metrics: 1) how recently the record daily rainfall occurred; and 2) how extreme the current record was. In locations where the record occurred further in the past, societal memory of the impacts may have faded, possibly reducing people’s interest in preparedness for extreme rainfall. In regions where the current record was not very extreme, a record-smashing event is statistically more likely, yet the region has not experienced such an event so may be less adequately prepared. We show that cities such as Sofia, Barcelona, Munich, and Amsterdam may have low levels of assumed preparedness. Such locations could benefit from communication about possible risks that the population might not be aware of, encouraging adaptation before a record-breaking event arrives.