Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3775
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3775
04 Aug 2026
 | 04 Aug 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics (NPG).

Unsupervised neural network for dynamics control under chaotic regime

Roberto Neves Salles, César Magno Leite de Oliveira Jr., Yoshitaka Saiki, and Haroldo Fraga de Campos Velho

Abstract. Some natural phenomena have strong impacts on society, implying the loss of human lives and a huge amount of financial costs. Therefore, the possibility of controlling severe natural phenomena is of practical interest, preserving lives and mitigating costs. The simulation of dynamical systems could help us to predict severe events, allowing the deployment of control actions to avoid or to mitigate the severity associated with the predicted phenomenon. Similar to the numerical experiments of Miyoshi and Sun (2022), here, ensemble predictions are employed to drive the control action in a chaotic dynamical system. The Observing Systems Simulation Experiment (OSSE) is performed using the Cellular Neural Network (CeNN) as the data assimilation operator with the Lorenz-63 system. The proposed CeNN-based assimilation achieved control performance comparable to or better than a perturbed observation ensemble Kalman filter, particularly for the more frequent assimilation interval.

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Roberto Neves Salles, César Magno Leite de Oliveira Jr., Yoshitaka Saiki, and Haroldo Fraga de Campos Velho

Status: open (until 29 Sep 2026)

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Roberto Neves Salles, César Magno Leite de Oliveira Jr., Yoshitaka Saiki, and Haroldo Fraga de Campos Velho
Roberto Neves Salles, César Magno Leite de Oliveira Jr., Yoshitaka Saiki, and Haroldo Fraga de Campos Velho

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Short summary
We studied whether interventions can help reduce the effects of dangerous natural events. We tested a computer approach that combines many forecasts with observations to decide when to act in a system that behaves unpredictably. Our method matched or outperformed a widely used forecasting approach, especially when information was updated more often. These results suggest it could support earlier, more effective actions that help protect lives and reduce damage.
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