Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3498
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3498
21 Jul 2026
 | 21 Jul 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics (NPG).

A Hierarchical Fractional N-body Framework for Coulomb Stress Evolution in Fault Networks: Exact Analytical Solutions and Falsifiable Seismicity Scaling Laws

Farrukh A. Chishtie

Abstract. We develop an exact analytical framework for the hierarchical fractional dynamics of interacting many-body systems and apply it to the nonlinear Coulomb stress transfer that governs seismicity in fractally organised fault networks. The framework rests on a scaling relation αk=22/(Nk+1) that connects the order of a Riemann–Liouville fractional evolution equation at hierarchical level k to the number Nk of interacting bodies at that level, derived in a companion paper (Chishtie, 2026, Physics Open) and applied here to the seismogenic setting. Closed-form solutions are obtained via parametric trigonometric representations σk(θ)sin4 θ at each level together with Chebyshev polynomial inversions of the time–parameter relation, and they converge to the classical wave equation as Nk → ∞. We embed the framework into the Time-Dependent Stress Response (TDSR) seismicity model of Dahm and Hainzl (2022, J. Geophys. Res.) to describe the hierarchical Coulomb stress cascade through a fractally organised fault network. Three quantitative, falsifiable scaling laws follow from the closed-form solutions with no free parameters: an Omori–Utsu aftershock decay exponent pk =αk/2= 11/(Nk+1) that stratifies across generations; a spatial Coulomb stress falloff ℓ−(1+αk) that departs measurably from the classical elastic ℓ−3 law; and a Gutenberg–Richter b-value bkDf Nk/(Nk+1) that accounts for the longstanding discrepancy between the fractal-dimension expectation b=Df  1.52 and the commonly observed b1 as a finite-Nk fractional correction. Numerical verification using the Grünwald–Letnikov scheme against the Mittag-Leffler exact series solution of the fractional relaxation equation confirms the analytical results. The standard TDSR model is recovered exactly as Nk → ∞ at all hierarchical levels and is therefore a special case of the present framework. We present illustrative qualitative comparisons with the 2023 Kahramanmaraş doublet and the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake; a systematic generation-stratified analysis across many sequences is set out as the primary observational test of the framework.

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Farrukh A. Chishtie

Status: open (until 15 Sep 2026)

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Farrukh A. Chishtie
Farrukh A. Chishtie
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Short summary
Earthquake faults branch into smaller and smaller pieces, like cracks within cracks. We built a mathematical model linking how many fault pieces interact to how quickly aftershocks fade, how far the stress from a quake spreads, and how earthquake sizes are distributed. The model needs no tuned settings and agrees with two recent large earthquakes, in Turkey in 2023 and Japan in 2024. It offers a simpler, physics-based way to understand aftershock patterns and earthquake hazard.
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