Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2948
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2948
16 Jun 2026
 | 16 Jun 2026

Simulating jökulhlaups from an ice-marginal lake within a 2D model of subglacial drainage and basal sliding

Adam J. Hepburn, Sammie Buzzard, Andrew J. Sole, Stephen J. Livingstone, Felix Ng, Mathieu Morlighem, Elizabeth A. Bagshaw, Caroline Clason, Lisa Craw, Christine Dow, Samuel Doyle, Jonathan Hawkins, Matthew Peacey, and Robert Storrar

Abstract. Ice-marginal lakes are an increasingly common feature of glacierised landscapes, and their sudden drainage beneath glaciers (a jökulhlaup) can threaten downstream communities and infrastructure. Numerous efforts to model jökulhlaups have been made, however, because these models are 1D representations of a single channel connected to a lake, they cannot simulate lateral jökulhlaup propagation through the subglacial system. Here, to simulate jökulhlaups within a 2D subglacial drainage system, we use a fully coupled model of subglacial hydrology and basal sliding with a time-evolving ice-marginal lake located at its boundary. In experiments on a synthetic domain, the model produces stable, recurrent jökulhlaup cycles, and glacier acceleration during flood onset followed by abrupt slowdown at peak flood discharge. Sensitivity testing highlights the efficiency of the subglacial hydrology system as a key control on flood timing, peak discharge, and the basal sliding response. We also explore our model’s ability to represent an observed record of jökulhlaups by applying it to Isunnguata Sermia, West Greenland. The model successfully reproduces variability over a 17-year period, but underpredicts peak flood discharges, likely because its formulation omits ice uplift and lake temperature variability. These results establish the coupling of a lake to 2D subglacial hydrology and ice dynamics as a viable approach for multi-decadal jökulhlaup simulation.

Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of The Cryosphere. The peer-review process was guided by an independent editor, and the authors also have no other competing interests to declare.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

06 Oct 2026
Simulating jökulhlaups from an ice-marginal lake within a 2D model of subglacial drainage and basal sliding
Adam J. Hepburn, Sammie Buzzard, Andrew J. Sole, Stephen J. Livingstone, Felix Ng, Mathieu Morlighem, Elizabeth A. Bagshaw, Caroline Clason, Lisa Craw, Christine F. Dow, Samuel Doyle, Jonathan Hawkins, Matthew Peacey, and Robert Storrar
The Cryosphere, 20, 5675–5696, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5675-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5675-2026, 2026
Short summary
Adam J. Hepburn, Sammie Buzzard, Andrew J. Sole, Stephen J. Livingstone, Felix Ng, Mathieu Morlighem, Elizabeth A. Bagshaw, Caroline Clason, Lisa Craw, Christine Dow, Samuel Doyle, Jonathan Hawkins, Matthew Peacey, and Robert Storrar

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-2948', Tomas Johannesson, 03 Jul 2026
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Adam Jake Hepburn, 01 Sep 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-2948', Anonymous Referee #2, 22 Jul 2026
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Adam Jake Hepburn, 01 Sep 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Submit a revised manuscript (06 Sep 2026) by Samuel Cook
AR by Adam Jake Hepburn on behalf of the Authors (07 Sep 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by editor and referees) (08 Sep 2026) by Samuel Cook
AR by Adam Jake Hepburn on behalf of the Authors (08 Sep 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (09 Sep 2026) by Samuel Cook
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (20 Sep 2026)
RR by Tomas Johannesson (26 Sep 2026)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (26 Sep 2026) by Samuel Cook
AR by Adam Jake Hepburn on behalf of the Authors (28 Sep 2026)  Manuscript 

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-2948', Tomas Johannesson, 03 Jul 2026
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Adam Jake Hepburn, 01 Sep 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-2948', Anonymous Referee #2, 22 Jul 2026
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Adam Jake Hepburn, 01 Sep 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Submit a revised manuscript (06 Sep 2026) by Samuel Cook
AR by Adam Jake Hepburn on behalf of the Authors (07 Sep 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by editor and referees) (08 Sep 2026) by Samuel Cook
AR by Adam Jake Hepburn on behalf of the Authors (08 Sep 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (09 Sep 2026) by Samuel Cook
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (20 Sep 2026)
RR by Tomas Johannesson (26 Sep 2026)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (26 Sep 2026) by Samuel Cook
AR by Adam Jake Hepburn on behalf of the Authors (28 Sep 2026)  Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

06 Oct 2026
Simulating jökulhlaups from an ice-marginal lake within a 2D model of subglacial drainage and basal sliding
Adam J. Hepburn, Sammie Buzzard, Andrew J. Sole, Stephen J. Livingstone, Felix Ng, Mathieu Morlighem, Elizabeth A. Bagshaw, Caroline Clason, Lisa Craw, Christine F. Dow, Samuel Doyle, Jonathan Hawkins, Matthew Peacey, and Robert Storrar
The Cryosphere, 20, 5675–5696, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5675-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5675-2026, 2026
Short summary
Adam J. Hepburn, Sammie Buzzard, Andrew J. Sole, Stephen J. Livingstone, Felix Ng, Mathieu Morlighem, Elizabeth A. Bagshaw, Caroline Clason, Lisa Craw, Christine Dow, Samuel Doyle, Jonathan Hawkins, Matthew Peacey, and Robert Storrar

Model code and software

pyJokulhlaup A. J. Hepburn https://github.com/The-SLIDE-Project/pyJokulhlaup

Adam J. Hepburn, Sammie Buzzard, Andrew J. Sole, Stephen J. Livingstone, Felix Ng, Mathieu Morlighem, Elizabeth A. Bagshaw, Caroline Clason, Lisa Craw, Christine Dow, Samuel Doyle, Jonathan Hawkins, Matthew Peacey, and Robert Storrar

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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
Lakes at glacier margins can drain beneath the ice in sudden, devastating, floods called jökulhlaup. We present the first 2D model of jökulhlaup propagation, first applying it to a synthetic glacier, before then assessing its ability to reproduce an observed record of lake fill-drain cycles in Greenland. Our results match a 17-year record of flood timing but underpredicts peak discharge likely because we are missing certain physical processes. Our results hold promise for simulating jökulhlaup.
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