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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-2948</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Simulating j&amp;ouml;kulhlaups from an ice-marginal lake within a 2D model of subglacial drainage and basal sliding</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hepburn</surname>
<given-names>Adam J.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5738-0794</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Buzzard</surname>
<given-names>Sammie</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-2549</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sole</surname>
<given-names>Andrew J.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5290-8967</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Livingstone</surname>
<given-names>Stephen J.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7240-5037</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ng</surname>
<given-names>Felix</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6352-0351</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Morlighem</surname>
<given-names>Mathieu</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5219-1310</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bagshaw</surname>
<given-names>Elizabeth A.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8392-1750</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Clason</surname>
<given-names>Caroline</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8236-2555</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Craw</surname>
<given-names>Lisa</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6809-3587</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dow</surname>
<given-names>Christine</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1346-2258</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Doyle</surname>
<given-names>Samuel</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0853-431X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hawkins</surname>
<given-names>Jonathan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6343-7443</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Peacey</surname>
<given-names>Matthew</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8554-2797</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Storrar</surname>
<given-names>Robert</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4738-0082</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Centre for Glaciology, Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, School of Geography and Natural Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Department of Geography and Planning, The University of Shefﬁeld, Shefﬁeld, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>Department of Geography and Environmental Management, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9">
<label>9</label>
<addr-line>Department of Natural and Built Environment, Shefﬁeld Hallam University, Shefﬁeld, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>16</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>34</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Adam J. Hepburn et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2948/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2948/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2948/egusphere-2026-2948.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2948/egusphere-2026-2948.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Ice-marginal lakes are an increasingly common feature of glacierised landscapes, and their sudden drainage beneath glaciers (a j&amp;ouml;kulhlaup) can threaten downstream communities and infrastructure. Numerous efforts to model j&amp;ouml;kulhlaups have been made, however, because these models are 1D representations of a single channel connected to a lake, they cannot simulate lateral j&amp;ouml;kulhlaup propagation through the subglacial system. Here, to simulate j&amp;ouml;kulhlaups within a 2D subglacial drainage system, we use a fully coupled model of subglacial hydrology and basal sliding with a time-evolving ice-marginal lake located at its boundary. In experiments on a synthetic domain, the model produces stable, recurrent j&amp;ouml;kulhlaup cycles, and glacier acceleration during ﬂood onset followed by abrupt slowdown at peak ﬂood discharge. Sensitivity testing highlights the efﬁciency of the subglacial hydrology system as a key control on ﬂood timing, peak discharge, and the basal sliding response. We also explore our model&amp;rsquo;s ability to represent an observed record of j&amp;ouml;kulhlaups by applying it to Isunnguata Sermia, West Greenland. The model successfully reproduces variability over a 17-year period, but underpredicts peak ﬂood discharges, likely because its formulation omits ice uplift and lake temperature variability. These results establish the coupling of a lake to 2D subglacial hydrology and ice dynamics as a viable approach for multi-decadal j&amp;ouml;kulhlaup simulation.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="34"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Natural Environment Research Council</funding-source>
<award-id>NE/X000257/1</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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<back>
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