| 27 May 2026
Brief communication：Delayed Ice Avalanches Triggered by Earthquakes: A Strain-rate Dependent Strengthening Mechanism
Abstract. Earthquakes have long been regarded as one of the major triggers of ice avalanches (IAs). However, their role in IA initiation remains controversial. Here, we compiled 169 IA events that occurred between 1941 and 2022 together with their associated earthquake records, and found that only 9 IAs occurred on the same day as the earthquake. This indicates a pronounced delayed response of IAs to seismic forcing. Taking the Hailuogou, Yanzigou, and Dagongba glaciers on Mt Gongga as examples, and using the 5 September 2022 Luding earthquake as the dividing point, we analysed glacier surface velocities during September-December 2021 and September-December 2022. The results show that glacier motion reached its maximum 1 month after the earthquake. By comparing meteorological data from the pre- and post-earthquake periods, we excluded climate variability as the primary cause of the observed glacier acceleration, thereby confirming the statistical pattern of delayed earthquake-induced IAs. We further propose a new contact model showing that seismic loading can transiently enhance the strength of ice. This strengthening effect is interpreted as the fundamental reason for the delayed occurrence of IAs after earthquakes. This study provides a new theoretical framework and fresh insights into the failure mechanism and hazard mitigation of earthquake-induced IAs.
This manuscript aims to address an interesting and important question: whether earthquakes can trigger ice avalanches with a time delay. The research question is original and relevant for hazard assessment in High Mountain Asia. However, the manuscript has several major issues with the dataset, statistical methodology, and theoretical framework. In my opinion, these issues are sufficient to recommend rejection.
First, the dataset contains factual errors and inconsistent event classifications, which reduce confidence in the analyses. Second, the statistical approach has several major problems. The epicentral distance threshold is derived from a pre-selected subset of events and then applied to the full dataset. Several key parameters are introduced without justification or sensitivity analysis, and Keefer's empirical relationship is applied to ice avalanches without explanation. The calibration is based on only 20 events; the analysis does not compare post-seismic ice avalanche occurrence with the background frequency of ice avalanches, and climatic controls such as temperature and precipitation are not available but are instead misinterpreted. As a result, the observed temporal association between earthquakes and delayed ice avalanches cannot be interpreted as evidence of causation. Third, the mechanical model operates at the microscale and is based entirely on previously published experimental data; it does not explain the observed delay times and is not directly connected to the observational analysis or the specific events discussed in the manuscript.
Overall, the manuscript reads as though it consists of loosely connected components rather than a single integrated study. The original contribution is limited, and the observational and modeling components are not sufficiently developed for publication in The Cryosphere.