the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
| 01 Jun 2026
A novel database of Antarctic meteorological extremes over key ice shelves during 1995–2023
Abstract. The climate of Antarctica is showing increasing signs of being impacted by the warming trend in global temperatures, which has potential to result in accelerated break up of key ice shelves, which would contribute to global sea level rise. Here, we present a novel database of Antarctic extreme weather events over a selection of key ice shelves (Larsen, George VI, Wilkins, Abbot, Thwaites, Totten, Amery, Lazarev), using simulations from four regional climate models (RCMs: RACMO2, HCLIM, MetUM and MAR), driven by the ERA5 reanalysis, examining surface air temperature, precipitation, wind and surface pressure. In addition, we examine trends in the frequency of extreme events above or below specified thresholds (5th, 10th, 50th, 90th and 95th percentiles) and spatial atmospheric circulation and temperature anomaly patterns over Antarctica that are commonly associated with extreme events over key ice shelves. The RCM simulations have been compared with station observations close to the ice shelves, and we developed regressions to estimate simulated values during periods when only one or two of the RCMs were available.
Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of The Cryosphere. There are no other competing interests to declare.
Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.- Preprint
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Status: open (until 13 Jul 2026)
