EGUsphere EGUsphere EGUsphere EGUsphere Copernicus Publications Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/egusphere-2026-2270 A novel database of Antarctic meteorological extremes over key ice shelves during 1995–2023 Simpson Ian 1 Hanna Edward 1 Williams Ryan S. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3185-3909 2 Luu Linh 1 3 4 Orr Andrew 2 Jones Julie 5 Fettweis Xavier https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4140-3813 6 Alavez Jose Abraham Torres https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3704-5822 7 Christensen Ole Bøssing https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9513-2588 7 Gilbert Ella https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5272-8894 2 Gumber Sid https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1648-1537 2 Kittel Christoph https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6586-9784 8 Li Sihan https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2479-8665 5 Maure Damien 6 Mottram Ruth https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1016-1997 7 Phillips Tony 2 van de Berg Willem Jan https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8232-2040 9 Verro Kristiina 7 Department of Geography, College of Health and Science, University of Lincoln, UK British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK Oxford Sustainable Law Programme, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change, Hanoi, Vietnam School of Geography and Planning, University of Sheffield, UK SPHERE research unit, Department of Geography, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark VRIJE Universiteit, Brussels, Belgium Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands 01 06 2026 2026 1 33 Copyright: © 2026 Ian Simpson et al. 2026 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2270/ The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2270/egusphere-2026-2270.pdf

The climate of Antarctica is showing increasing signs of being impacted by the warming trend in global temperatures, which has potential to result in accelerated break up of key ice shelves, which would contribute to global sea level rise. Here, we present a novel database of Antarctic extreme weather events over a selection of key ice shelves (Larsen, George VI, Wilkins, Abbot, Thwaites, Totten, Amery, Lazarev), using simulations from four regional climate models (RCMs: RACMO2, HCLIM, MetUM and MAR), driven by the ERA5 reanalysis, examining surface air temperature, precipitation, wind and surface pressure. In addition, we examine trends in the frequency of extreme events above or below specified thresholds (5th, 10th, 50th, 90th and 95th percentiles) and spatial atmospheric circulation and temperature anomaly patterns over Antarctica that are commonly associated with extreme events over key ice shelves. The RCM simulations have been compared with station observations close to the ice shelves, and we developed regressions to estimate simulated values during periods when only one or two of the RCMs were available.

 Natural Environment Research Council NE/Y503290/1