21 Apr 2026
| 21 Apr 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Brief Communication: The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is not a Reliable Indicator of the Timing of an Ice-Free Arctic
Abstract. The Arctic is transitioning towards a seasonally ice-free state over the next few decades, with internal variability determining precisely when. The phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) has been proposed to reduce internal variability uncertainty in ice-free predictions. Using a selection of 8 large ensembles from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6, starting from current mean sea ice extent, we find no agreement that the IPO affects ice-free timing. However, a majority of large ensembles indicate the IPO can affect the rate and spatial distribution of Arctic sea ice decline over the next two decades.
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