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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-2082</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Brief Communication: The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is not a Reliable Indicator of the Timing of an Ice-Free Arctic</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wyburn-Powell</surname>
<given-names>Christopher</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8362-9151</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Jahn</surname>
<given-names>Alexandra</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6580-2579</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>21</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>12</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Christopher Wyburn-Powell</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2082/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2082/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2082/egusphere-2026-2082.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-2082/egusphere-2026-2082.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The Arctic is transitioning towards a seasonally ice-free state over the next few decades, with internal variability determining precisely when. The phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) has been proposed to reduce internal variability uncertainty in ice-free predictions. Using a selection of 8 large ensembles from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6, starting from current mean sea ice extent, we find no agreement that the IPO affects ice-free timing. However, a majority of large ensembles indicate the IPO can affect the rate and spatial distribution of Arctic sea ice decline over the next two decades.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="12"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Science Foundation</funding-source>
<award-id>1847398</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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