Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1919
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1919
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
26 May 2026
| 26 May 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
GCAM-China-v8: An Integrated Global-to-Provincial Framework for Assessing China’s Energy and Emission Futures
Abstract. This paper describes Global Change Analysis Model-China version 8 (GCAM-China-v8), an open-source integrated assessment model that represents interactions among energy, economic, and water systems within a globally consistent framework, with explicit subnational representation for China. GCAM-China-v8 builds on the GCAM and represents the world as 31 geopolitical regions outside China, while disaggregating China into 31 province-level regions to capture regional heterogeneity. GCAM-China-v8 can be used to explore how changes in socioeconomic drivers, technological progress, and policy assumptions affect energy and water demand and production at the subnational level in China, while maintaining consistency with national and international boundary conditions. This paper documents the model structure and data inputs, with particular emphasis on the methodological updates introduced in GCAM-China-v8, including enhanced sectoral and temporal representations. To demonstrate the capabilities of the updated model, we apply GCAM-China-v8 to two illustrative scenarios with contrasting assumptions about future socioeconomic development and energy system transformation. This paper provides a transparent and extensible modeling framework for future research on China’s long-term energy and climate transitions. It also contributes to the broader Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) community by advancing national-scale model development within an open and consistent framework.
How to cite. Xu, S., Liu, Y., Yu, S., Jia, W., Jiang, Y., Li, Y., Liu, Z., Miller, A., Shen, J., Song, J., Wang, C., Wang, H., Wang, R., Wu, F., Zhang, H., Zhu, M., Zhu, R., Behrendt, J., Binsted, M., Cheng, J., Dahowski, R., Davidson, C., Deng, S., Fuhrman, J., Gidden, M., Guo, C., Horing, J., Kim, H., Li, C., Liu, B., Pan, X., Patel, P., Qian, M., Qiu, Y., Shao, T., Sun, Y., Wang, L., Yang, Y., Yarlagadda, B., Yin, Z., Zang, J., Zhang, Q., Cai, W., Chen, W., Clarke, L., Cui, R., Hultman, N., Li, B., Li, J., Lu, X., McJeon, H., Wang, B., Wang, C., Wang, P., Wang, S., Wang, Z., Zhang, L., Zhang, Q., and Ou, Y.: GCAM-China-v8: An Integrated Global-to-Provincial Framework for Assessing China’s Energy and Emission Futures, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1919, 2026.
Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Model code and software
GCAM-China release website GCAM-China contributors https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19471594
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Shuling Xu
College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Yang Liu
State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Sha Yu
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
Weidong Jia
Institute of Blue and Green Development, Shandong University, Weihai 264209, China
Yongye Jiang
College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Yuqin Li
State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Zeyuan Liu
School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
Andy Miller
Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
Jianxiang Shen
Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Jingyang Song
College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Can Wang
School of Management, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China
Huaxuan Wang
State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Rui Wang
Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands
College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Hongzhi Zhang
School of Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China
Mengting Zhu
College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Rongqi Zhu
College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Jenna Behrendt
Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
Matthew Binsted
Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
Jing Cheng
College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Robert Dahowski
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99354, USA
Casie Davidson
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99354, USA
Shiyu Deng
The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London WC1E 7HB, UK
Jay Fuhrman
Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
Matthew Gidden
Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
Chaoyi Guo
Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
Jill Horing
California Energy Commission, Sacramento, CA 95814, USA
Hanwoong Kim
Center for Policy Research on Energy and the Environment, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
Chaojun Li
State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Tsinghua Institute for Frontier Interdisciplinary Innovation, Beijing 100084, China
National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO 80401, USA
Xunzhang Pan
School of Ecology and Environment, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
Pralit Patel
Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
Meiyin Qian
Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences, Shanghai 200233, China
Yang Qiu
Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
Tianming Shao
School of Advanced Manufacturing and Robotics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Yisheng Sun
State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Lining Wang
CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute, Beijing 100724, China
Yuyao Yang
Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China
Brinda Yarlagadda
Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
Zihua Yin
PetroChina International Company Limited, Beijing 100033, China
Jian Zang
Tianfu Yongxing Laboratory, Chengdu 610213, China
Qianzhi Zhang
Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Wenjia Cai
Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Wenying Chen
Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Leon Clarke
Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
Ryna Cui
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
Nathan Hultman
Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
Bengang Li
College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Jiashuo Li
Institute of Blue and Green Development, Shandong University, Weihai 264209, China
Xi Lu
State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Institute for Carbon Neutrality, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Beijing Laboratory of Environmental Frontier Technologies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Institute for Carbon-Neutrality System Integration Technologies, Tianfu Yongxing Laboratory, Chengdu 610213, China
Haewon McJeon
Graduate School of Green Growth and Sustainability, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon 34141, South Korea
Bo Wang
School of Management, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China
Can Wang
State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Peng Wang
Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China
Shuxiao Wang
State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Zhaohua Wang
School of Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China
Lixiao Zhang
State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Qiang Zhang
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Short summary
This study introduces a new open-source model GCAM-China-v8, developed by the community to better understand China’s energy and emissions at both national and provincial levels. The model links detailed regional systems with global trends, allowing users to explore how economic growth, technology, and policy choices shape future pathways. It provides a transparent and flexible tool to support research and decision making on energy and climate issues.
This study introduces a new open-source model GCAM-China-v8, developed by the community to...