EGUsphere EGUsphere EGUsphere EGUsphere Copernicus Publications Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/egusphere-2026-1919 GCAM-China-v8: An Integrated Global-to-Provincial Framework for Assessing China’s Energy and Emission Futures Xu Shuling 1 31 32 Liu Yang 2 32 Yu Sha 3 32 Jia Weidong 4 Jiang Yongye 5 Li Yuqin 6 Liu Zeyuan 7 Miller Andy https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6103-1685 3 Shen Jianxiang 8 Song Jingyang https://orcid.org/0009-0000-5061-384X 1 Wang Can 9 Wang Huaxuan 2 Wang Rui 10 Wu Fan https://orcid.org/0009-0001-2937-4896 1 Zhang Hongzhi 11 Zhu Mengting 1 Zhu Rongqi https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2113-7754 1 Behrendt Jenna 3 Binsted Matthew https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5177-7253 3 Cheng Jing 1 Dahowski Robert https://orcid.org/0009-0004-4452-6853 12 Davidson Casie 12 Deng Shiyu 13 Fuhrman Jay 3 Gidden Matthew https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0687-414X 3 Guo Chaoyi 3 Horing Jill 14 Kim Hanwoong 15 Li Chaojun 2 16 Liu Bo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4636-5254 17 Pan Xunzhang 18 Patel Pralit https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3992-1061 3 Qian Meiyin 19 Qiu Yang 3 Shao Tianming 20 Sun Yisheng 2 Wang Lining 21 Yang Yuyao 22 Yarlagadda Brinda https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2944-3449 3 Yin Zihua 23 Zang Jian 24 Zhang Qianzhi 25 Cai Wenjia 8 Chen Wenying 25 Clarke Leon 3 Cui Ryna 3 Hultman Nathan 3 Li Bengang 5 26 Li Jiashuo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2915-4770 4 Lu Xi 2 27 28 29 McJeon Haewon https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0348-5704 30 Wang Bo 9 Wang Can 2 Wang Peng 22 Wang Shuxiao https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9727-1963 2 Wang Zhaohua 11 Zhang Lixiao 6 Zhang Qiang 8 Ou Yang https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1889-6218 1 26 College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA Institute of Blue and Green Development, Shandong University, Weihai 264209, China College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China School of Management, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands School of Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99354, USA The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London WC1E 7HB, UK California Energy Commission, Sacramento, CA 95814, USA Center for Policy Research on Energy and the Environment, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA Tsinghua Institute for Frontier Interdisciplinary Innovation, Beijing 100084, China National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO 80401, USA School of Ecology and Environment, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences, Shanghai 200233, China School of Advanced Manufacturing and Robotics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute, Beijing 100724, China Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China PetroChina International Company Limited, Beijing 100033, China Tianfu Yongxing Laboratory, Chengdu 610213, China Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China Institute for Carbon Neutrality, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China Beijing Laboratory of Environmental Frontier Technologies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China Institute for Carbon-Neutrality System Integration Technologies, Tianfu Yongxing Laboratory, Chengdu 610213, China Graduate School of Green Growth and Sustainability, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon 34141, South Korea School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China These authors contributed equally to this work. 26 05 2026 2026 1 48 Copyright: © 2026 Shuling Xu et al. 2026 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1919/ The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1919/egusphere-2026-1919.pdf

This paper describes Global Change Analysis Model-China version 8 (GCAM-China-v8), an open-source integrated assessment model that represents interactions among energy, economic, and water systems within a globally consistent framework, with explicit subnational representation for China. GCAM-China-v8 builds on the GCAM and represents the world as 31 geopolitical regions outside China, while disaggregating China into 31 province-level regions to capture regional heterogeneity. GCAM-China-v8 can be used to explore how changes in socioeconomic drivers, technological progress, and policy assumptions affect energy and water demand and production at the subnational level in China, while maintaining consistency with national and international boundary conditions. This paper documents the model structure and data inputs, with particular emphasis on the methodological updates introduced in GCAM-China-v8, including enhanced sectoral and temporal representations. To demonstrate the capabilities of the updated model, we apply GCAM-China-v8 to two illustrative scenarios with contrasting assumptions about future socioeconomic development and energy system transformation. This paper provides a transparent and extensible modeling framework for future research on China’s long-term energy and climate transitions. It also contributes to the broader Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) community by advancing national-scale model development within an open and consistent framework.

 National Natural Science Foundation of China 72474002 72534005 42305190 L2524074 52225902 National Key Research and Development Program of China 2024YFF1307000 2023YFC3708500 Bloomberg Philanthropies NA ClimateWorks Foundation NA Sequoia Foundation NA