Analysis of the Relationship between Official Rain-Praying Rituals and Droughts in China over the Past 2000 Years

Abstract. Official rain-praying rituals, as an institutionalized cultural response to drought in ancient China, offer a crucial window into the evolution of state governance logic and disaster relief responses during climate crises. In this study, 1,825 official rain-praying records from the Western Han to the Qing dynasties were collated on the basis of the Twenty-Four Histories and the Qing Shigao, resulting in the construction of a long-term sequence with a ten-year resolution and a high-resolution annual sequence for the Ming and Qing periods. Sliding window correlation analysis was employed in combination with historical drought sequences to investigate long-term patterns of change. Functioning as a cultural disaster response indicator, this sequence, when integrated with other socioeconomic proxy indicators, enables a more comprehensive characterization of the climate change–impact–response process. The findings reveal that official rain-praying rituals exhibit a four-phase fluctuation pattern of low-high-low-high, with a significant nonlinear relationship between drought occurrence and such rituals. During the Han and Tang dynasties, rain-praying primarily constituted a direct response to environmental stress. In the Song and late Qing periods, confronted with crises of legitimacy amid internal turmoil and external threats, rulers favored high-frequency rain-praying to proclaim the mandate of heaven and pacify public sentiment, resulting in a strong correlation between rain-praying and drought. Conversely, during the Yuan and late Ming dynasties, influenced by ethnic cultural differences or the collapse of state administrative efficacy, a decoupling emerged whereby disasters occurred without corresponding rain-praying. Moreover, the Qing dynasty established systems of regular rain prayers and confidential memorials, transforming rain rituals from reactive disaster relief into proactive administrative routines. These rituals even exhibited a temporal lead over drought outbreaks, becoming institutionalized. During periods of relative fiscal abundance, state disaster responses prioritized substantive relief measures – such as opening granaries for distribution and tax reductions – over reliance on ceremonial rain prayers. As rulers' focus shifted from celestial principles to pragmatic grain storage for famine relief, the frequency of rain-praying rituals also declined markedly. Research findings indicate that ancient Chinese official rain-praying rituals were not determined solely by climate but constituted a complex political process regulated by state capacity, demands for political legitimacy, and institutional sophistication.