Climate variability in Poland (Central Europe) in the 16th century based on multiproxy data

Abstract. The article includes an overview of the current state of knowledge regarding climate in Poland (Central Europe) in the 16^th century and its changes. For this purpose, we utilised all previously published reconstructions and five new quantitative reconstructions incorporating dendrochronological data and documentary evidence. New dendrochronological data were used to reconstruct the mean winter or late winter–early spring temperatures, while documentary evidence enabled the reconstruction of mean winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) temperatures. The climate of Poland in the 16th century, as reconstructed from documentary evidence, was colder than it is today (1991–2020), particularly in winter (by 3.6 °C). In summer, it was only 0.7 °C colder than today. Compared to the average for the entire 20th century, however, the summer average in the 16th century was 0.3 °C warmer, whereas the winter average was 2.5 °C colder. In both dendrochronological reconstructions of the temperature of south-eastern Poland, the temperatures in the 16th century were generally lower than those recorded today (1951–2000), particularly in the case of the reconstruction based on the fir chronology (December–March). Anomalies, however, both positive and negative, were usually of less than one standard deviation from the long-term mean. On the other hand, in northern Poland, the February–March temperatures in the 16th century were, on average, comparable to those of the present. Most available temperature reconstructions for Poland reveal cooling over the last few decades of the 16th century, particularly during the winter half-year. The climate in the 16^th century was more continental than it is today.