Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6362
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6362
12 Jan 2026
 | 12 Jan 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

A High-Resolution Framework for Urban Pluvial Flood Risk Mapping

Anastasia Vogelbacher, Malte von Szombathely, Marc Lennartz, Benjamin Poschlod, and Jana Sillmann

Abstract. This study presents a high-resolution framework for assessing climate-related risk at the building scale by operationalizing the IPCC risk concept, defining risk as a function of vulnerability, exposure and hazard. The framework focuses on pluvial flood risk related to people’s well-being and mobility. Hazard is driven by a 100-year rainfall event (36 mm h-1), modelled with a hydrodynamic flood simulation incorporating topography, drainage capacity, and land use. Exposure is differentiated by impact type, considering residents on ground floors for well-being and building proximity to flooded streets for mobility and accessibility. Social vulnerability is quantified using socioeconomic indicators such as age, income, and education. The framework is demonstrated using empirical data from Hamburg, Germany, identifying risk hotspots where high social vulnerability coincides with elevated flood exposure. To support practical implementation, we introduce a Python-based ArcGIS pluvial flood risk toolbox that enables automated, building-level risk mapping. The transparent and flexible design makes the framework transferable to other cities, supporting climate adaptation planning and risk-informed decision-making.

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Anastasia Vogelbacher, Malte von Szombathely, Marc Lennartz, Benjamin Poschlod, and Jana Sillmann

Status: open (until 23 Feb 2026)

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Anastasia Vogelbacher, Malte von Szombathely, Marc Lennartz, Benjamin Poschlod, and Jana Sillmann
Anastasia Vogelbacher, Malte von Szombathely, Marc Lennartz, Benjamin Poschlod, and Jana Sillmann
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Short summary
In this study we address risk to pluvial floods by following the risk definition of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), developed in co-operation with stakeholders. We identify buildings in urban areas where residents face higher flood risk due to greater social vulnerability, increased exposure, or elevated flood hazard. We present the development and application of a Python-based ArcGIS toolbox for estimating pluvial flood risk at building scale.
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