Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6169
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6169
22 Jan 2026
 | 22 Jan 2026

Sensitivity of Andean Glaciers to ice-flow parameters in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model

Ethan Lee, Jeremy C. Ely, Sarah L. Bradley, Tamsin L. Edwards, and Bethan J. Davies

Abstract. Mountain glaciers are losing mass rapidly due to anthropogenic climate change. Projections of glacier evolution across the Andes under different warming scenarios have primarily been as part of global scale modelling frameworks, rather than dedicated, regionally optimised, simulations. These global-scale models use simplifications of ice flow physics that may be unsuitable for steep topography, such as that which occurs at mountain valley glaciers. More complex models are available, but with that complexity comes further sources of uncertainty. Here, we assess the sensitivity of the Parallel Ice Sheet Model to ice-flow parameters influencing the ice rheology and subglacial sliding characteristics. We find that the resistance of subglacial material has the most impact on modelled ice outputs (e.g., ice volume), followed by the exponent which relates basal shear stress to sliding, and the threshold velocity at which sliding occurs. The ice-flow rheology enhancement factors, the rate of subglacial water decay, and the maximum water thickness within a presumed subglacial drainage network, can either cause minor variations, or no effect at all, on ice outputs. Our study informs what parameters can potentially be negated in future parameter ensemble tests and provides direction on where further investigation is needed.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

30 Jul 2026
Sensitivity of Andean Glaciers to ice-flow parameters in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model
Ethan Lee, Jeremy C. Ely, Sarah L. Bradley, Tamsin L. Edwards, and Bethan J. Davies
The Cryosphere, 20, 4209–4233, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4209-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4209-2026, 2026
Short summary
Ethan Lee, Jeremy C. Ely, Sarah L. Bradley, Tamsin L. Edwards, and Bethan J. Davies

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-6169', Cristina I. Balaban, 19 Feb 2026
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Ethan Lee, 08 Jun 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-6169', Adem Candas, 12 May 2026
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Ethan Lee, 08 Jun 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Submit a revised manuscript (09 Jun 2026) by Carlos Martin
AR by Ethan Lee on behalf of the Authors (09 Jun 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
EF by Vitaly Muravyev (23 Jun 2026)  Supplement 
ED: Publish as is (30 Jun 2026) by Carlos Martin
AR by Ethan Lee on behalf of the Authors (07 Jul 2026)  Manuscript 

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-6169', Cristina I. Balaban, 19 Feb 2026
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Ethan Lee, 08 Jun 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-6169', Adem Candas, 12 May 2026
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Ethan Lee, 08 Jun 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Submit a revised manuscript (09 Jun 2026) by Carlos Martin
AR by Ethan Lee on behalf of the Authors (09 Jun 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
EF by Vitaly Muravyev (23 Jun 2026)  Supplement 
ED: Publish as is (30 Jun 2026) by Carlos Martin
AR by Ethan Lee on behalf of the Authors (07 Jul 2026)  Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

30 Jul 2026
Sensitivity of Andean Glaciers to ice-flow parameters in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model
Ethan Lee, Jeremy C. Ely, Sarah L. Bradley, Tamsin L. Edwards, and Bethan J. Davies
The Cryosphere, 20, 4209–4233, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4209-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4209-2026, 2026
Short summary
Ethan Lee, Jeremy C. Ely, Sarah L. Bradley, Tamsin L. Edwards, and Bethan J. Davies
Ethan Lee, Jeremy C. Ely, Sarah L. Bradley, Tamsin L. Edwards, and Bethan J. Davies

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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
The South American Andes are the least well known in their futures. We can use numerical models to estimate the change of these glaciers to future climate change. However, options within the numerical model which effect the results are unknown. We vary these options of selected important options to understand their effect on the numerical model output across the South American Andes. We find that how the model approximates sediment friction, and sliding, to be important on model output.
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