Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6014
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6014
06 Jan 2026
 | 06 Jan 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).

Scale-Dependent Transition in Soil Moisture Memory and Its Environmental Controls in Complex Mountain Terrain

Jun Zhang, Songtang He, Yong Li, and Yuan Xue

Abstract. Soil moisture memory (SMM) defines the antecedent wetness states that modulate catchment responses to meteorological triggers, serving as a critical determinant of background hydraulic susceptibility. However, its multi-scale characteristics and environmental drivers remain poorly understood in complex terrain. This study characterizes SMM dynamics across daily-to-interannual scales using daily data (2003–2022) from three hazard-prone watersheds in southwestern China (Dali River, Anning River, and Jiangjia Ravine). By integrating Power Spectrum Analysis, Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA-2), and a spatial attribution modeling framework, we identify a distinct scale-dependent transition in SMM persistence and its controls. Results revealed that while memory intensity generally weakened with scale, humid catchments exhibited a robust "inherent persistence" regime extending to multi-year scales. Crucially, feature importance analysis uncovered a structural transition at approximately the 5-year scale: atmospheric variables and vegetation dominated short-term variability, whereas soil properties and topography governed the system's long-term capacity to integrate low-frequency signals. Mechanistically, this marks a shift from event-driven hydraulic responses to background storage trends regulated by deep soil buffering. These findings provide a basis for distinguishing event-scale hydraulic preconditioning from long-term background susceptibility, offering a conceptual framework for incorporating operational persistence horizons into hierarchical hazard assessment strategies.

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Jun Zhang, Songtang He, Yong Li, and Yuan Xue

Status: open (until 17 Feb 2026)

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Jun Zhang, Songtang He, Yong Li, and Yuan Xue

Data sets

Daily Soil Moisture and Its Driving Factors (Static and Dynamic) in Three Watersheds: Dali River Basin, Anning River Basin, and Jiangjia Ravine (2003-2022) Jun Zhang https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17510469

Model code and software

Code for: "Scale-Dependent Soil Moisture Memory and Its Driving Mechanisms in Hazard-Prone Mountain Watersheds" Jun Zhang https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17510622

Jun Zhang, Songtang He, Yong Li, and Yuan Xue

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Short summary
To better predict mountain hazards like landslides, we studied how long soil retains rain moisture. Using 20 years of satellite data from China, we found a control shift at about five years. Short-term memory is governed by weather and plants, while long-term persistence is locked in by soil and terrain. This creates a lasting "background" wetness, especially in humid forests, pre-conditioning slopes for years.
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