Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-891
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-891
06 Mar 2025
 | 06 Mar 2025

Aerosol effects on day-ahead solar radiation forecasting

Xinyuan Hou, Kyriakoula Papachristopoulou, and Stelios Kazadzis

Abstract. We used aerosol data from surface-based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and day-ahead aerosol optical depth (AOD) forecasts from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) to examine the spatiotemporal variations in AOD at selected sites worldwide. We evaluated three methods for day-ahead AOD forecasting: AERONET 1-day persistence or monthly mean, along with CAMS forecast. High values of daily mean AOD indicates larger day-to-day variability in AOD and lower predictability. Using the radiative transfer model, we quantify deviations in forecasts of clear-sky direct normal irradiance (DNI) induced by errors in AOD forecasts. The performance of each AOD forecast method in DNI forecast is assessed and compared. Taking into account the characteristic aerosol types at selected locations, we also draw quantitative implications about the reliability and usability of CAMS AOD forecasts for DNI forecasts as alternatives to AOD forecasts based on approaches using ground measurements. For example, CAMS forecasts perform better at more sites than AERONET persistence, among them many urban-industrial aerosol sites. AERONET persistence forecasts AOD with lower errors at dust aerosol sites. To date, none of the forecast methods for AOD discussed here reliably achieve an accuracy of < 5 % deviation in day-ahead DNI forecasts, but most of the sites can expect better DNI forecasts with a threshold of 20 % DNI deviation.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

16 Sep 2025
Assessment of aerosol optical depth forecast for day-ahead clear-sky direct irradiance
Xinyuan Hou, Kyriakoula Papachristopoulou, and Stelios Kazadzis
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 4543–4557, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-4543-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-4543-2025, 2025
Short summary
Xinyuan Hou, Kyriakoula Papachristopoulou, and Stelios Kazadzis

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-891', Anonymous Referee #1, 03 May 2025
  • RC2: 'Review of the manuscript “Aerosol effects on day-ahead solar radiation forecasting”', Anonymous Referee #2, 27 May 2025

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-891', Anonymous Referee #1, 03 May 2025
  • RC2: 'Review of the manuscript “Aerosol effects on day-ahead solar radiation forecasting”', Anonymous Referee #2, 27 May 2025

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Xinyuan Hou on behalf of the Authors (08 Jul 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (13 Jul 2025) by Maria João Costa
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (14 Jul 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (21 Jul 2025)
ED: Publish as is (21 Jul 2025) by Maria João Costa
AR by Xinyuan Hou on behalf of the Authors (29 Jul 2025)

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

16 Sep 2025
Assessment of aerosol optical depth forecast for day-ahead clear-sky direct irradiance
Xinyuan Hou, Kyriakoula Papachristopoulou, and Stelios Kazadzis
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 4543–4557, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-4543-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-4543-2025, 2025
Short summary
Xinyuan Hou, Kyriakoula Papachristopoulou, and Stelios Kazadzis
Xinyuan Hou, Kyriakoula Papachristopoulou, and Stelios Kazadzis

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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
We analyzed aerosol ground measurements and model based aerosol optical depth (AOD) forecasts to study variations in AOD at different global sites. We compared day-ahead AOD forecast methods and assessed their impact on forecasting clear-sky direct normal irradiance (DNI). While none of the methods accurately forecast DNI within 5 %, most sites showed a DNI deviation within 20 %, especially at sites with urban-industrial aerosols.
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