the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
| 28 Dec 2025
Extreme Mediterranean cyclones under future climate change
Abstract. The Mediterranean storm track is characterized by small but intense cyclones that can cause extreme weather events across the region. Thus the aim of this study is to investigate the impact of future climate change on extreme wind, precipitation and compounding cyclones. Using a regional climate model simulation, we show that the mean cyclone frequency is reduced by roughly a third in the Mediterranean by the end of the 21st century under the representative concentration pathway RCP8.5. For precipitation-type extreme cyclones (EXCs), future projections show increased precipitation during their most intense phase in the western Mediterranean (WMED), whereas precipitation from these cyclones remains similar in the eastern Mediterranean (EMED). Moreover, precipitation EXCs in the EMED are shifted southward, whereas the latitude of precipitation EXCs in the WMED remain unchanged in the future. The intensification of WMED precipitation EXCs in the future is partly explained by a significant increase in diabatically produced PV during their mature phase. Wind speed EXCs become more intense in both the WMED and EMED in the future under RCP8.5. The reason for this intensification is that wind speed EXCs in the future are located on the left exit of the jet streak, the latter also being intensified in the future. The future change of compounding precipitation and wind speed cyclones is similar to the individual precipitation and wind speed EXCs, with the exception that wind speed of compounding EXCs is reduced in the EMED. Thus, we find that despite a general reduction of cyclones in the Mediterranean, precipitation and wind speed EXCs intensify in the future in some areas, which implies strong socio-economic consequences for the Mediterranean.
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Notice on discussion status
The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.
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Preprint
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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.
- Preprint
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(990 KB) - BibTeX
- EndNote
- Final revised paper
Journal article(s) based on this preprint
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-6315', Anonymous Referee #1, 23 Feb 2026
The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-6315/egusphere-2025-6315-RC1-supplement.pdfCitation: https://doi.org/
10.5194/egusphere-2025-6315-RC1 - AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Onno Doensen, 29 May 2026
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-6315', Anonymous Referee #2, 08 Apr 2026
I read the paper by Doensen et al. (2026) with great interest. The study examines the effect of climate change on the most intense Mediterranean cyclones and quantifies the associated changes in induced extreme weather. The manuscript is generally well written, and the methods and overall scientific approach appear appropriate for addressing the stated objectives. I have only minor concerns regarding some of the results themselves; however, my main impression is that the discussion needs to be improved. In these regards, I would like to highlight two main issues:1. Use of vague language.
  There are several points in the manuscript where the language lacks technical precision. As a result, important details are not sufficiently highlighted, which in turn affects the significance and clarity of the paper. I would advise the authors to revise the text carefully in order to improve precision and scientific accuracy.2. Interesting results, but limited discussion.
  The results are interesting and insightful, but their discussion remains underdeveloped. Much of Section 3 appears to describe the figures, without sufficiently connecting the findings to previous studies and without clearly showing how the present work expands existing knowledge. In my view, a stronger discussion would considerably enhance the value of the paper. For instance, several previous studies, some of which are already cited in the manuscript, have statistically described the effects of climate change on extreme cyclones and, more generally, on extremes in the Mediterranean region. By contrast, the three-dimensional composite structures -provided here- represent a more original contribution. However, the manuscript does not clearly reveal how these results build upon and extend previous knowledge.My recommendation is major revision, mainly because addressing these issues requires more than minor editing. The following specific comments mainly outline issues related with the two concerns right above.
Title: At first glance, it is not entirely clear whether “Extreme Mediterranean cyclones” refers to weather extremes associated with cyclones or to cyclones of extreme intensity. Please revise the title for clarity.
Line 22: What is meant by “heavy windstorm”?
Lines 34–65: These paragraphs are informative, but they are somewhat disconnected. It would help if the phrasing were more clearly articulated and if some synthesis were added to guide the reader regarding what should be retained and how it connects to this study.
Lines 51–52: Please articulate this more clearly with the following sentence.
Line 178: grid point
Lines 181–183: How do these results compare with previous studies, for example Reale et al. (2021)?
Line 193: subpanel → panel
Lines 194–196: The language is familiar here. Please be more specific.
Lines 193–207: These lines seem somewhat superficially descriptive of the figures. Please discuss these results in relation to previous studies and provide a clearer conclusion to Section 3.1.
Line 211: “general structure” is too vague. Please be more specific. It would also be useful to discuss whether this structure is systematic across the systems considered. Is there any indication of how many medicanes, as recently defined by Miglietta et al. (2025), are included in your dataset?
Miglietta, M. M., and Coauthors, 2025: Defining Medicanes: Bridging the Knowledge Gap between Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones in the Mediterranean. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 106, E1955–E1971, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0289.1.Â
Section 3.2: Could you please compare and discuss your findings with previous studies showing an overall decrease in cyclone-related precipitation under climate change in the Mediterranean (e.g. Reale et al., 2021; Chericoni et al., 2025)?
Line 257: I think that the vertical gradient of θe is related to potential instability, that is, it may help explain the stronger link between frontal structures and precipitation. If so, please revise accordingly.
Lines 254–259: Several studies have shown that stronger diabatic forcing can lead to smaller, more compact cyclones. Could this help explain the positive–negative rainfall pattern in Fig. 5? Could it also explain the more uniform pattern mentioned in line 305 (perhaps “more axisymmetric” is what is meant)?
Lines 266–267: Givon et al. (2024) showed that different clusters of PV intrusions are related to the mature stage of Mediterranean cyclones (their Fig. 3). Is it possible that future cyclones may fall into, or preferentially favour, different clusters? Perhaps PV could also be included in Fig. 8 so that the reader can better assess whether the vertical cross-sections in Fig. 6 are comparing similar three-dimensional structures.
Givon, Y., Hess, O., Flaounas, E., Catto, J. L., Sprenger, M., and Raveh-Rubin, S.: Process-based classification of Mediterranean cyclones using potential vorticity, Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 133–162, [https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024](https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024), 2024.
Line 268: “When looking ..., we see .. general decrease...” Please avoid overly vague language throughout the paper. At times, this comes at the expense of precision regarding the results and the points that the reader should focus on most.
Lines 321–329: My impression is that this part should be linked more directly to Fig. 6, or perhaps the two discussions could be merged.
Lines 321–322: Could you please explain why? A stronger cyclone could also be related to stronger diabatic forcing.
Line 326: “This hints...” is again somewhat informal. Also, the merging of the jets appears to be atypical in intense Mediterranean cyclones; see Fig. 10 of Flaounas et al. (2015).
Flaounas, E., Raveh-Rubin, S., Wernli, H. et al. The dynamical structure of intense Mediterranean cyclones. Clim Dyn 44, 2411–2427 (2015). [https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2330-2](https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2330-2)
Line 379: “quite some spread” is another example of overly familiar language. Please be more precise.
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Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6315-RC2 - AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Onno Doensen, 29 May 2026
Peer review completion
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
-
RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-6315', Anonymous Referee #1, 23 Feb 2026
The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-6315/egusphere-2025-6315-RC1-supplement.pdf
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Onno Doensen, 29 May 2026
-
RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-6315', Anonymous Referee #2, 08 Apr 2026
I read the paper by Doensen et al. (2026) with great interest. The study examines the effect of climate change on the most intense Mediterranean cyclones and quantifies the associated changes in induced extreme weather. The manuscript is generally well written, and the methods and overall scientific approach appear appropriate for addressing the stated objectives. I have only minor concerns regarding some of the results themselves; however, my main impression is that the discussion needs to be improved. In these regards, I would like to highlight two main issues:1. Use of vague language.
  There are several points in the manuscript where the language lacks technical precision. As a result, important details are not sufficiently highlighted, which in turn affects the significance and clarity of the paper. I would advise the authors to revise the text carefully in order to improve precision and scientific accuracy.2. Interesting results, but limited discussion.
  The results are interesting and insightful, but their discussion remains underdeveloped. Much of Section 3 appears to describe the figures, without sufficiently connecting the findings to previous studies and without clearly showing how the present work expands existing knowledge. In my view, a stronger discussion would considerably enhance the value of the paper. For instance, several previous studies, some of which are already cited in the manuscript, have statistically described the effects of climate change on extreme cyclones and, more generally, on extremes in the Mediterranean region. By contrast, the three-dimensional composite structures -provided here- represent a more original contribution. However, the manuscript does not clearly reveal how these results build upon and extend previous knowledge.My recommendation is major revision, mainly because addressing these issues requires more than minor editing. The following specific comments mainly outline issues related with the two concerns right above.
Title: At first glance, it is not entirely clear whether “Extreme Mediterranean cyclones” refers to weather extremes associated with cyclones or to cyclones of extreme intensity. Please revise the title for clarity.
Line 22: What is meant by “heavy windstorm”?
Lines 34–65: These paragraphs are informative, but they are somewhat disconnected. It would help if the phrasing were more clearly articulated and if some synthesis were added to guide the reader regarding what should be retained and how it connects to this study.
Lines 51–52: Please articulate this more clearly with the following sentence.
Line 178: grid point
Lines 181–183: How do these results compare with previous studies, for example Reale et al. (2021)?
Line 193: subpanel → panel
Lines 194–196: The language is familiar here. Please be more specific.
Lines 193–207: These lines seem somewhat superficially descriptive of the figures. Please discuss these results in relation to previous studies and provide a clearer conclusion to Section 3.1.
Line 211: “general structure” is too vague. Please be more specific. It would also be useful to discuss whether this structure is systematic across the systems considered. Is there any indication of how many medicanes, as recently defined by Miglietta et al. (2025), are included in your dataset?
Miglietta, M. M., and Coauthors, 2025: Defining Medicanes: Bridging the Knowledge Gap between Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones in the Mediterranean. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 106, E1955–E1971, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0289.1.Â
Section 3.2: Could you please compare and discuss your findings with previous studies showing an overall decrease in cyclone-related precipitation under climate change in the Mediterranean (e.g. Reale et al., 2021; Chericoni et al., 2025)?
Line 257: I think that the vertical gradient of θe is related to potential instability, that is, it may help explain the stronger link between frontal structures and precipitation. If so, please revise accordingly.
Lines 254–259: Several studies have shown that stronger diabatic forcing can lead to smaller, more compact cyclones. Could this help explain the positive–negative rainfall pattern in Fig. 5? Could it also explain the more uniform pattern mentioned in line 305 (perhaps “more axisymmetric” is what is meant)?
Lines 266–267: Givon et al. (2024) showed that different clusters of PV intrusions are related to the mature stage of Mediterranean cyclones (their Fig. 3). Is it possible that future cyclones may fall into, or preferentially favour, different clusters? Perhaps PV could also be included in Fig. 8 so that the reader can better assess whether the vertical cross-sections in Fig. 6 are comparing similar three-dimensional structures.
Givon, Y., Hess, O., Flaounas, E., Catto, J. L., Sprenger, M., and Raveh-Rubin, S.: Process-based classification of Mediterranean cyclones using potential vorticity, Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 133–162, [https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024](https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024), 2024.
Line 268: “When looking ..., we see .. general decrease...” Please avoid overly vague language throughout the paper. At times, this comes at the expense of precision regarding the results and the points that the reader should focus on most.
Lines 321–329: My impression is that this part should be linked more directly to Fig. 6, or perhaps the two discussions could be merged.
Lines 321–322: Could you please explain why? A stronger cyclone could also be related to stronger diabatic forcing.
Line 326: “This hints...” is again somewhat informal. Also, the merging of the jets appears to be atypical in intense Mediterranean cyclones; see Fig. 10 of Flaounas et al. (2015).
Flaounas, E., Raveh-Rubin, S., Wernli, H. et al. The dynamical structure of intense Mediterranean cyclones. Clim Dyn 44, 2411–2427 (2015). [https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2330-2](https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2330-2)
Line 379: “quite some spread” is another example of overly familiar language. Please be more precise.
Â
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6315-RC2 - AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Onno Doensen, 29 May 2026
Peer review completion
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Martina Messmer
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos
Christoph C. Raible
The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.
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(3990 KB) - Metadata XML
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Supplement
(990 KB) - BibTeX
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