Climate extremes limiting the growth of East Asian mangroves for future nature-based solutions

Abstract. Mangroves represent distinctive coastal ecosystems that offer ecological benefits, notably through their high carbon sequestration rates. However, their resilience to extreme climate events remains uncertain. Here, we investigate the response of mangroves in East Asia to climate variability by employing the remote-sensing derived normalized difference vegetation index as a proxy for mangrove health. We found East Asian mangrove growth has positive relations with temperature and solar radiation, particularly in cumulative anomalies on seasonal time scales. These findings are extrapolated to future projections by the Earth system modelling to explore not only existing mangroves but also potential habitats. While shifts in wintertime isotherms indicate northward expansion of mangroves under global warming, low solar radiation events associated with aerosol emissions in East Asia could remain as a limiting factor for their growth. This study underscores the importance of climate extremes in practical planning for future mangrove conservation, restoration, and migration, which are considered effective nature-based climate solutions.