Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5775
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5775
21 Nov 2025
 | 21 Nov 2025

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3: Experimental protocol for coordinated constraining and evaluation of Reduced-Complexity Models

Alejandro Romero-Prieto, Marit Sandstad, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Norman J. Steinert, Thomas Gasser, Camilla Mathison, Jarmo Kikstra, Thomas J. Aubry, and Chris Smith

Abstract. Reduced-Complexity Models (RCMs) are a critical tool for synthesising climate science knowledge and providing climate projections for a wide range of emissions scenarios. The Reduced-Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP) provides a framework for the coordinated evaluation and application of these models. Here, we introduce the experimental protocol for RCMIP Phase 3 (RCMIP3), which is timed to inform the upcoming seventh assessment cycle of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR7). Taking stock of lessons from previous phases, RCMIP3 builds on community climate assessment products to support a common framework to compare RCM output against historical climate benchmarks. The experimental design aims to support a comprehensive assessment of RCMs across multiple climate-relevant domains, with a particular focus on carbon cycle dynamics and climate reversibility. The protocol is designed in tandem with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7), replicating its "Assessment Fast Track" together with complementary experiments which explore wider state dependencies, sampling multiple scenario generations, long timescale response and diverse emissions-driven process representation.

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Alejandro Romero-Prieto, Marit Sandstad, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Norman J. Steinert, Thomas Gasser, Camilla Mathison, Jarmo Kikstra, Thomas J. Aubry, and Chris Smith

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Alejandro Romero-Prieto, Marit Sandstad, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Norman J. Steinert, Thomas Gasser, Camilla Mathison, Jarmo Kikstra, Thomas J. Aubry, and Chris Smith
Alejandro Romero-Prieto, Marit Sandstad, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Norman J. Steinert, Thomas Gasser, Camilla Mathison, Jarmo Kikstra, Thomas J. Aubry, and Chris Smith
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Latest update: 21 Nov 2025
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Short summary
Reduced-complexity models are an important tool in climate science, helping us understand and estimate future climate change. We present the experimental protocol for the next phase of the reduced-complexity model intercomparison project, which aims to compare results from many such models to better understand their behaviour. This knowledge will guide how these models are developed and used in the future, including in the upcoming IPCC assessment report (AR7).
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