Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-575
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-575
27 Feb 2025
 | 27 Feb 2025

Brief communication: Reanalyses underperform in cold regions, raising concerns for climate services and research

Bin Cao and Stephan Gruber

Abstract. Many changes in cold regions are amplified by nonlinear processes involving ice, and have important consequences locally and globally. We show that the average ensemble spread of the mean annual air temperature (1.5 °C) in the reanalyses is 90 % greater in cold regions compared to the other regions and shows pronounced disagreement in the trend. The ensemble spread in the mean annual maximum snow water equivalent is found greater than the ensemble mean. The reduced quality of reanalyses in cold regions, coinciding with sparse in situ observations and low population, points to challenges in how we represent cold-regions phenomena in simulation systems and limits our ability to support climate research and services.

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Bin Cao and Stephan Gruber

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-575', Steven Margulis, 28 Feb 2025
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-575', Anonymous Referee #1, 01 Apr 2025
    • AC1: 'Quick Reply on RC1', Bin Cao, 02 Apr 2025
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC1', Bin Cao, 20 May 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-575', Anonymous Referee #2, 19 Apr 2025

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-575', Steven Margulis, 28 Feb 2025
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-575', Anonymous Referee #1, 01 Apr 2025
    • AC1: 'Quick Reply on RC1', Bin Cao, 02 Apr 2025
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC1', Bin Cao, 20 May 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-575', Anonymous Referee #2, 19 Apr 2025
Bin Cao and Stephan Gruber
Bin Cao and Stephan Gruber

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Short summary
The climate-driven changes in cold regions have an outsized importance for local resilient communities and for global climate through teleconnections. We shows that reanalyses are less accurate in cold regions compared to other more populated regions, coincident with the low density of observations. Our findings likely point to similar gaps in our knowledge and capabilities for climate research and services in cold regions.
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