Global Stability and Tipping Point Prediction of the Coral Reef Ecosystem

Abstract. Coral reefs are highly diverse and important marine ecosystems, with the potential for multiple stable states and critical transitions between alternative states. Using landscape-flux theory, we explore the dynamics of these systems in the face of stochastic perturbations. We quantified the average flux as the non-equilibrium driving force and the entropy production rate as the nonequilibrium thermodynamic cost. We also compute the nonequilibrium free energy and time irreversibility from the cross-correlation functions as early warning signals for critical transitions. These early warning signals, characterized by turning points in the middle of two bifurcations, can provide predictions for both left and right bifurcations, much earlier than critical slowing down, a more traditional indicator that is evident only closer to the bifurcation point(s).