Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5208
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5208
30 Oct 2025
 | 30 Oct 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics (NPG).

On transversality and the characterization of finite time hyperbolic subspaces in chaotic attractors

Terence J. O'Kane and Courtney R. Quinn

Abstract. We examine the local stable and unstable manifolds of chaotic attractors and their associated growth rates for the quantification of (non-)hyperbolicity in low dimensional nonlinear autonomous dissipative models. This is motivated by a desire for a deeper understanding of transversality and hyperbolicity to inform key challenges to prediction in spatially extended chaotic systems in geophysical flows. In particular, we apply local measures of chaos to quantify the relationship between transversality, dimension, and hyperbolicity on the subspaces of the attractors' invariant manifolds. We consider unstable directions and growth rates determined over finite time intervals, specifically those predicated on information over the past evolution i.e., finite time backwards Lyapunov vectors, and those that include information from both the past and future i.e., finite time covariant Lyapunov vectors. Our study reveals general properties across a diverse set of chaotic attractors at short, intermediate and extended forecast horizons associated with the emergence of distinct locally evolving regions of instability. 

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Terence J. O'Kane and Courtney R. Quinn

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Terence J. O'Kane and Courtney R. Quinn
Terence J. O'Kane and Courtney R. Quinn

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Short summary
Mathematical concepts and measures from dynamical systems theory are applied to identify commonalities across a diverse set of chaotic attractors to better understand the relationship between predictability, directions and rates of expansion and contraction of instabilities over finite time forecast horizons, and dimensionality. The patterns that emerge have broad implications for understanding many dynamical features of geophysical flows.
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