Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5172
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5172
13 Nov 2025
 | 13 Nov 2025

Building-level exposed asset value modelling for Germany

Aaron Buhrmann, Cecilia I. Nievas, Nivedita Sairam, James E. Daniell, Heidi Kreibich, and Seth Bryant

Abstract. This study addresses the challenges of exposure modelling at the building or object-level in Germany, motivated by the need for harmonized, open-access data in next generation risk assessments. While aggregated exposure data suffice for many applications, detailed object-level data are increasingly essential for tasks such as local risk management and impact forecasting. However, this object-level information is often proprietary, protected by regulation, poorly documented, and fragmented because data on building usage, structural type, or replacement costs is often not readily available or not compiled in one dataset. To address this gap, we present an evaluation of potential exposure modelling frameworks utilizing various disaggregation approaches and source data from cadastre-derived, crowd-sourced, national accounts, and fit-for-purpose datasets. Using information collected from an area recently affected by a flood disaster and a weighted scoring model, we evaluate the ability of candidates to assign a building’s economic sector and asset value against our hand-labelled benchmark dataset. Ultimately, we find an exposure modelling framework disaggregating national-accounts onto cadastre-derived building footprints slightly out-performs other candidates owing mainly to its transparency and adaptability. However, we conclude that all but the land-use derived candidate are defensible exposure modelling frameworks — so long as some relevant validation is performed. The frameworks presented here enable the transparent, reproducible, and maintainable multi-sector object-level exposure modelling necessary for the next generation of risk analysis and impact forecasting.

Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. The peer-review process was guided by an independent editor, and the authors also have no other competing interests to declare.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

05 Oct 2026
Building-level exposure asset value modelling for Germany: an Ahrweiler case study
Aaron Buhrmann, Nivedita Sairam, Cecilia I. Nievas, James E. Daniell, Heidi Kreibich, and Seth Bryant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4785–4805, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4785-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4785-2026, 2026
Short summary
Aaron Buhrmann, Cecilia I. Nievas, Nivedita Sairam, James E. Daniell, Heidi Kreibich, and Seth Bryant

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-5172', Anonymous Referee #1, 22 Jan 2026
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Seth Bryant, 04 Jun 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-5172', Anonymous Referee #2, 26 Jan 2026
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Seth Bryant, 04 Jun 2026
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-5172', Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, 03 Feb 2026
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Seth Bryant, 04 Jun 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Submit a revised manuscript (09 Jun 2026) by Ugur Öztürk
AR by Seth Bryant on behalf of the Authors (10 Jun 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (23 Jun 2026) by Ugur Öztürk
RR by Guilherme Samprogna Mohor (08 Jul 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (05 Aug 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (10 Aug 2026)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (12 Aug 2026) by Ugur Öztürk
AR by Seth Bryant on behalf of the Authors (22 Aug 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
EF by Alison Downie (24 Aug 2026)  Supplement 
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (24 Aug 2026) by Ugur Öztürk
AR by Seth Bryant on behalf of the Authors (25 Aug 2026)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-5172', Anonymous Referee #1, 22 Jan 2026
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Seth Bryant, 04 Jun 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-5172', Anonymous Referee #2, 26 Jan 2026
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Seth Bryant, 04 Jun 2026
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-5172', Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, 03 Feb 2026
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Seth Bryant, 04 Jun 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Submit a revised manuscript (09 Jun 2026) by Ugur Öztürk
AR by Seth Bryant on behalf of the Authors (10 Jun 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (23 Jun 2026) by Ugur Öztürk
RR by Guilherme Samprogna Mohor (08 Jul 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (05 Aug 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (10 Aug 2026)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (12 Aug 2026) by Ugur Öztürk
AR by Seth Bryant on behalf of the Authors (22 Aug 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
EF by Alison Downie (24 Aug 2026)  Supplement 
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (24 Aug 2026) by Ugur Öztürk
AR by Seth Bryant on behalf of the Authors (25 Aug 2026)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

05 Oct 2026
Building-level exposure asset value modelling for Germany: an Ahrweiler case study
Aaron Buhrmann, Nivedita Sairam, Cecilia I. Nievas, James E. Daniell, Heidi Kreibich, and Seth Bryant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4785–4805, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4785-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4785-2026, 2026
Short summary
Aaron Buhrmann, Cecilia I. Nievas, Nivedita Sairam, James E. Daniell, Heidi Kreibich, and Seth Bryant
Aaron Buhrmann, Cecilia I. Nievas, Nivedita Sairam, James E. Daniell, Heidi Kreibich, and Seth Bryant

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Short summary
Our research lays the groundwork for the next generation of disaster risk modelling by improving how building-level value and use are estimated across Germany. By testing multiple data sources and methods, we identify a transparent, adaptable approach that enhances forecasts of damage and recovery—helping protect lives, property, and communities.
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