Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4981
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4981
17 Oct 2025
 | 17 Oct 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

Evaluation of upper-tropospheric lower-stratospheric properties over the Asian monsoon region in a storm-resolving model

Sylvia C. Sullivan, Aiko Voigt, Edgardo Sepúlveda Araya, Silvia Bucci, Annette Miltenberger, Meredith K. Kupinski, Christian Rolf, and Martina Krämer

Abstract. The structure of the tropical upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS) affects radiative balance, stability, and regional dynamics in important ways. Lack of reliable observational baselines poses a challenge to evaluating model representation of UTLS properties. Here, we use in-situ data, primarily from the StratoClim field campaign over the Asian Monsoon area, to assess the UTLS temperature, moisture, and ice clouds in the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model at storm-resolving grid spacing. We also employ superpressure balloon data and updrafts of the POSIDON and ATTREX campaigns to evaluate the UTLS convective updrafts and gravity wave activity in ICON. Our simulations show the upper troposphere is too cold, while the lower stratosphere is too warm and excessively dry relative to observations. These thermodynamic biases coincide with overestimated cloud ice in the upper troposphere and underestimated cloud ice in the lower stratosphere. The mean convective updraft is underestimated by 80 % in the model, and the power spectral density for temperature fluctuations of frequencies greater than 103 s-1 is underestimated by orders of magnitude. Too weak dynamics exacerbate a lack of ice cloud above 100 hPa. Too weak and too infrequent convective overshoots or too rapid dissipation of upper-tropospheric ice clouds in the model are two possible explanatory mechanisms for these biases.

Competing interests: Some authors are members of the editorial board of the journal ACP.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Sylvia C. Sullivan, Aiko Voigt, Edgardo Sepúlveda Araya, Silvia Bucci, Annette Miltenberger, Meredith K. Kupinski, Christian Rolf, and Martina Krämer

Status: open (until 28 Nov 2025)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
Sylvia C. Sullivan, Aiko Voigt, Edgardo Sepúlveda Araya, Silvia Bucci, Annette Miltenberger, Meredith K. Kupinski, Christian Rolf, and Martina Krämer

Data sets

Postprocessed data to reproduce results of UTLS evaluation Sylvia C. Sullivan https://zenodo.org/records/17211372

Interactive computing environment

Code to reproduce figures of UTLS evaluation Sylvia C. Sullivan https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17252590

Sylvia C. Sullivan, Aiko Voigt, Edgardo Sepúlveda Araya, Silvia Bucci, Annette Miltenberger, Meredith K. Kupinski, Christian Rolf, and Martina Krämer
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Latest update: 17 Oct 2025
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Short summary
We assess the temperature, moisture, and dynamics in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere simulated over South Asia in a high-resolution model relative to aircraft data. The lower stratosphere tends to be too warm, too dry, and too quiescent in the model, and as a result, too few ice clouds are predicted to form there. These biases could affect radiative balance and circulation in other areas also, as significant upward transport of moisture and pollutants occurs during the Asian monsoon.
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