A Fluvial Flood Risk Model for Quantifying the Benefit of Mitigation Measures under Uncertainty

Abstract. We present a dynamic probabilistic flood risk model that addresses key challenges in the implementation of integrated flood risk management. These include the need for holistic, large-scale risk assessments that adopt a system-based perspective, and a decision-making framework based on benefit-cost analysis. The proposed model allows for the explicit simulation and dynamic coupling of the flood process components, including downstream flood wave propagation and possible dike failures, in a computationally efficient and data-sparse manner. It enables the consideration of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in a 2-level Monte Carlo framework. By separating these uncertainties, the model supports robust risk assessments and facilitates the uncertainty-aware evaluation of the benefit of mitigation measures. The model is applied to the Bavarian Danube, demonstrating its ability to estimate the flood risk reduction potential from mitigation measures.