Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4744
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4744
06 Oct 2025
 | 06 Oct 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).

Developing Guidelines for Working with Multi-Model Ensembles in CMIP

Anja Katzenberger, Jhayron S. Perez-Carrasquilla, Keighan Gemmell, Evgenia Galytska, Christine Leclerc, P. Punya, Indrani Roy, Arianna Varuolo-Clarke, Milica Tošić, and Nina Črnivec

Abstract. Earth System Models (ESMs) are the key tool for studying the climate under changing conditions. Over recent decades, it has been established to not only rely on projections of a single model but to combine various ESMs in multi-model ensembles (MMEs) to improve robustness and quantify the uncertainty of the projections. The data access for MME studies has been fundamentally facilitated by the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) - a collaborative effort bringing together ESMs from modelling communities all over the world. Despite the CMIP standardisation processes, addressing specific research questions using MMEs requires unique ensemble design, analysis, and interpretation choices. Based on the collective expertise within the Fresh Eyes on CMIP initiative, mainly composed of early-career researchers engaged in CMIP, we have identified common issues and questions encountered while working with climate MMEs. In this project, we provide a comprehensive literature review addressing these questions. We provide statistics tracing the development of the climate MMEs analysis field throughout the last decades, and, synthesising existing studies, we outline guidelines regarding model evaluation, model dependence, weighting methods, and uncertainty treatment. We summarize a collection of useful resources for MME studies, we review common questions and strategies, and finally, we outline emerging scientific trends, such as the integration of machine learning (ML) techniques, single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILES), and computational resource considerations. We thereby strive to support researchers working with climate MMEs particularly in the upcoming 7th phase of CMIP.

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Anja Katzenberger, Jhayron S. Perez-Carrasquilla, Keighan Gemmell, Evgenia Galytska, Christine Leclerc, P. Punya, Indrani Roy, Arianna Varuolo-Clarke, Milica Tošić, and Nina Črnivec

Status: open (until 17 Nov 2025)

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Anja Katzenberger, Jhayron S. Perez-Carrasquilla, Keighan Gemmell, Evgenia Galytska, Christine Leclerc, P. Punya, Indrani Roy, Arianna Varuolo-Clarke, Milica Tošić, and Nina Črnivec
Anja Katzenberger, Jhayron S. Perez-Carrasquilla, Keighan Gemmell, Evgenia Galytska, Christine Leclerc, P. Punya, Indrani Roy, Arianna Varuolo-Clarke, Milica Tošić, and Nina Črnivec

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Short summary
Multi-model ensembles are a central approach in climate model analysis, but their use involves many complex considerations. In this work, we review relevant literature and synthesize existing studies to contribute to the development of guidelines for designing and conducting ensemble analyses. This is complemented by a collection of useful resources and a discussion of emerging trends, supported by statistics tracing the number of publications.
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