Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4720
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4720
06 Oct 2025
 | 06 Oct 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).

Emerging global freshwater challenges unveiled through observation-constrained projections

Fei Huo, Yanping Li, and Zhenhua Li

Abstract. Future hydrological projections exhibit significant discrepancies among models, undermining confidence in the predicted magnitude and timing of hydrological extremes. Here we show that observation-constrained changes in global mean terrestrial water storage (TWS), excluding Greenland and Antarctica, could be approximately 83 mm lower than raw projections from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 3b by the end of this century under both low- and high-end future forcing scenarios. Notably, the 95th percentile upper bounds are substantially reduced from 2 mm to −96 mm under the low-emissions scenario and from 8 mm to −105 mm under the high-emissions scenario, revealing a notable overestimation of global freshwater availability in the raw model projections. Global models are intricate process representations, making it challenging to isolate causes of their differences with observations. However, by leveraging the emergent constraint (EC) methodology and inter-model spread to empirically adjust biases against observations, we produce more robust projections of future TWS changes than conventional, unconstrained approaches. EC-corrected projections indicate a significant decrease in freshwater availability, further exacerbating existing water stress worldwide if global water demand remains stable or continues to rise. Our findings pinpoint the urgent need to reduce model uncertainties and enhance the reliability of future hydrological projections to better inform water resource management and climate adaptation strategies.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
Share
Fei Huo, Yanping Li, and Zhenhua Li

Status: open (until 17 Nov 2025)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
Fei Huo, Yanping Li, and Zhenhua Li
Fei Huo, Yanping Li, and Zhenhua Li

Viewed

Total article views: 22 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
20 2 0 22 0 0 0
  • HTML: 20
  • PDF: 2
  • XML: 0
  • Total: 22
  • Supplement: 0
  • BibTeX: 0
  • EndNote: 0
Views and downloads (calculated since 06 Oct 2025)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 06 Oct 2025)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 19 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 19 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 07 Oct 2025
Download
Short summary
In this study, we find that global freshwater storage on land (excluding Greenland and Antarctica) will likely decrease much more than raw models suggest – about 83 millimeters less water by 2100. This means that earlier studies may have overestimated future water availability. When we correct the models using observations, the results consistently show significant declines in freshwater, which could worsen water stress worldwide if demand continues to grow.
Share