Drought Propagation and Ecosystem Resilience in a Peri-Urban Catchment of Berlin-Brandenburg

Abstract. This study investigates the drought dynamics and their effects on surface water, groundwater, and vegetation across the Tegeler Fließ catchment in Berlin/Brandenburg from November 2008 to April 2021. Calculating drought indices for atmospheric, hydrological and groundwater drought, namely the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardised Surface Water Level Index (SSWLI) and the Standardised Groundwater Level Index (SGLI), respectively, the analysis identifies station-specific drought events and their propagation across three locations: Schildow, Luebars, and Tegel. The three indices allow us to take a closer look into the differences and the propagation of drought processes over different parts of the hydrological system. The study also assesses the impact of drought on vegetation health using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Our results strongly differ at different locations: the peri-urban area (Tegel) experienced the most severe and prolonged groundwater droughts, while the groundwater in the nature reserve and fen meadow area (Schildow) remained more resilient but faced significant surface water stress. Agricultural land (Luebars) displayed variability in both surface and groundwater responses, with surface water systems being more resilient. NDVI analysis revealed that vegetation remained largely within moderate to dense classes throughout the study period, showing resilience despite severe drought conditions from 2018 to 2020. Spearman correlation tests did not show any significant relationship between NDVI and drought indices, while Granger causality tests revealed that SPI, and for some stations also SSWLI, significantly Granger-caused NDVI with a lag of one month. These findings highlight the need for localized drought management strategies tailored to both surface and groundwater resources, alongside enhanced vegetation monitoring that goes beyond traditional indices like NDVI.