Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-467
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-467
24 Feb 2025
 | 24 Feb 2025

Recent history and future demise of Jostedalsbreen, the largest ice cap in mainland Europe

Henning Åkesson, Kamilla Hauknes Sjursen, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Thorben Dunse, Liss Marie Andreassen, Mette Kusk Gillespie, Benjamin Aubrey Robson, Thomas Schellenberger, and Jacob Clement Yde

Abstract. Glaciers and ice caps worldwide are in strong decline, and models project this trend to continue with future warming, with strong environmental and socio-economic implications. The Jostedalsbreen ice cap is the largest ice cap on the European continent (458 km2 in 2019) and occupies 20 % of the total glacier area of mainland Norway. Here we simulate the evolution of Jostedalsbreen since 1960, and its fate in a changing climate in the 21st-century and beyond (2300). This ice cap consists of glacier units with a great diversity in shape, steepness, hypsometry, and flow speed. We employ a coupled model system with higher-order 3-d ice dynamics forced by simulated surface mass balance that fully accounts for the mass-balance elevation feedback. We find that Jostedalsbreen may lose 12–74 % of its present-day volume until 2100, depending on future greenhouse gas emissions. Regardless of emission scenario, the ice cap is likely to split into three parts during the second half of the 21st century. Our results suggest that Jostedalsbreen will likely be more resilient than many smaller glaciers and ice caps in Scandinavia. However, we show that by the year 2100, the ice cap may be committed to a complete disappearance during the 22nd century, under high emissions (RCP8.5). Under medium 21st-century emissions (RCP4.5), the ice cap is bound to shrink by 90 % until 2300. Further simulations indicate that substantial mass losses undergone until 2100 are irreversible. Our study demonstrates a model approach for complex ice masses with numerous outlet glaciers such as ice caps, and how tightly linked future mass loss is to future greenhouse-gas emissions. Finally, uncertainties in future climate conditions, particularly precipitation, appear to be the largest source of uncertainty in future projections of maritime ice masses like Jostedalsbreen.

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Henning Åkesson, Kamilla Hauknes Sjursen, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Thorben Dunse, Liss Marie Andreassen, Mette Kusk Gillespie, Benjamin Aubrey Robson, Thomas Schellenberger, and Jacob Clement Yde

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-467', Anonymous Referee #1, 02 Apr 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Henning Åkesson, 04 Sep 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-467', Ward van Pelt, 03 Apr 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Henning Åkesson, 04 Sep 2025
Henning Åkesson, Kamilla Hauknes Sjursen, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Thorben Dunse, Liss Marie Andreassen, Mette Kusk Gillespie, Benjamin Aubrey Robson, Thomas Schellenberger, and Jacob Clement Yde

Video supplement

Supplementary videos Henning Åkesson https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14764904

Henning Åkesson, Kamilla Hauknes Sjursen, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Thorben Dunse, Liss Marie Andreassen, Mette Kusk Gillespie, Benjamin Aubrey Robson, Thomas Schellenberger, and Jacob Clement Yde

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Short summary
We model the historical and future evolution of the Jostedalsbreen ice cap in Norway, projecting substantial and largely irreversible mass loss for the 21st century, and that the ice cap will split into three parts. Further mass loss is in the pipeline, with a disappearance during the 22nd century under high emissions. Our study demonstrates an approach to model complex ice masses, highlights uncertainties due to precipitation, and calls for further research on long-term future glacier change.
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